Venezuelan crude output reaching 1.2 million barrels a day stays favored

Name: Venezuelan crude output reaching 1.2 million barrels a day stays favored
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket ladder

record: CMSIG2026083008 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-WL6DTZN086 | published: 2026-08-30

4-bullet brief | narrative

The ladder market prices a 77% probability that Venezuelan crude oil production reaches 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026, with only 13% above 1.3 million bpd.
The US-Venezuela oil deal is broadly consistent with the high probability at the 1.2M bpd threshold, as US operational involvement could accelerate output; the market sees limited probability of production surging much further in the near term.
The sharp drop from 77% at 1.2M bpd to 13% at 1.3M bpd signals the market views infrastructure and execution risk as real constraints on rapid production scaling.
Resolution depends on an official Venezuelan or internationally recognized crude production data release for 2026; sovereignty disputes and data transparency could create settlement uncertainty.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: The US and Venezuela announced a major oil deal giving the US significant access to Venezuelan oil reserves, with Venezuela's interim government asserting retained sovereignty.exa_search → Al Jazeera Staff · as_of 2026-08-30T13:30:27+00:00
publisher: Al Jazeera Staff
published_at: 2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/30/venezuela-says-it-retains-sovereignty-following-us-oil-deal

[02] pm_response

interp: Ladder pricing concentrates strongly at the 1.2M bpd threshold; the deal announcement is consistent with elevated production probability but the market prices limited upside beyond that level.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/will-venezuelan-crude-oil-production-reach-barrels-per-day-in-2026/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x59bb2cc4b116c5137e858222c867638bcd78b236db7656adf93114fcdf62b902

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/venezuela-crude-output-above-1-2m-bpd-in-2026-kalshi-style-l-2026-08-30/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/venezuela-crude-output-above-1-2m-bpd-in-2026-kalshi-style-l-2026-08-30.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("venezuela-crude-output-above-1-2m-bpd-in-2026-kalshi-style-l-2026-08-30")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026083008",
  "published_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-WL6DTZN086",
  "target_event_slug": "will-venezuelan-crude-oil-production-reach-barrels-per-day-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Venezuelan crude oil production 2026 (barrels per day)",
  "bullets": [
    "The ladder market prices a 77% probability that Venezuelan crude oil production reaches 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026, with only 13% above 1.3 million bpd.",
    "The US-Venezuela oil deal is broadly consistent with the high probability at the 1.2M bpd threshold, as US operational involvement could accelerate output; the market sees limited probability of production surging much further in the near term.",
    "The sharp drop from 77% at 1.2M bpd to 13% at 1.3M bpd signals the market views infrastructure and execution risk as real constraints on rapid production scaling.",
    "Resolution depends on an official Venezuelan or internationally recognized crude production data release for 2026; sovereignty disputes and data transparency could create settlement uncertainty."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Al Jazeera Staff",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/30/venezuela-says-it-retains-sovereignty-following-us-oil-deal",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-30T13:30:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US and Venezuela announced a major oil deal giving the US significant access to Venezuelan oil reserves, with Venezuela's interim government asserting retained sovereignty.",
      "publisher": "Al Jazeera Staff",
      "published_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/30/venezuela-says-it-retains-sovereignty-following-us-oil-deal"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder pricing concentrates strongly at the 1.2M bpd threshold; the deal announcement is consistent with elevated production probability but the market prices limited upside beyond that level."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/will-venezuelan-crude-oil-production-reach-barrels-per-day-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Al Jazeera Staff: Venezuela says it retains ‘sovereignty’ following US oil deal | News |",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/30/venezuela-says-it-retains-sovereignty-following-us-oil-deal",
      "published_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-30T13:30:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026083008 published 2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-a89e3eed92b… ← underlying event all signals →