Wisconsin Democratic governor primary second place stays near certain to be decided

Name: Wisconsin Democratic governor primary second place stays near certain to be decided
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-11T14:06:40.503Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 1%

record: CMSIG2026081108 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-C2VSFP4N78 | published: 2026-08-11

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Kalshi contract prices only a 1% chance the second-place finisher in the Wisconsin Democratic governor primary remains undecided past the certification deadline.
A too-close-to-call race between Hong and Crowley is in tension with that near-certainty; a contested count could push toward the 1% tail.
The near-zero price implies markets expect a clean, called result even in a tight race, relying on Wisconsin's established certification process.
Resolves via the official Wisconsin election authority responsible for certifying results; a recount request in a very tight margin is the key tail risk.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Francesca Hong and David Crowley are locked in a too-close-to-call Democratic gubernatorial primary in Wisconsin, with progressives and moderates in a tight race.exa_search → Garrett Downs · as_of 2026-08-12T09:07:43+00:00
publisher: Garrett Downs
published_at: 2026-08-11T14:06:40.503Z
source_url: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/11/minnesota-wisconsin-primaries-hong-flanagan-craig-run-in-key-races.html

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi is the venue; the 1% price reflects strong prior that even close Wisconsin primaries resolve without prolonged certification disputes.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxwidgov2nd-govwinomd26-2/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXWIDGOV2ND-GOVWINOMD26-2-DCRO

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/wi-dem-gov-primary-2nd-place-called-kalshi-1-2026-08-11/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/wi-dem-gov-primary-2nd-place-called-kalshi-1-2026-08-11.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("wi-dem-gov-primary-2nd-place-called-kalshi-1-2026-08-11")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081108",
  "published_at": "2026-08-11T14:06:40.503Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-C2VSFP4N78",
  "target_event_slug": "kxwidgov2nd-govwinomd26-2",
  "event_question": "Will the second-place finisher in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary be decided by August 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract prices only a 1% chance the second-place finisher in the Wisconsin Democratic governor primary remains undecided past the certification deadline.",
    "A too-close-to-call race between Hong and Crowley is in tension with that near-certainty; a contested count could push toward the 1% tail.",
    "The near-zero price implies markets expect a clean, called result even in a tight race, relying on Wisconsin's established certification process.",
    "Resolves via the official Wisconsin election authority responsible for certifying results; a recount request in a very tight margin is the key tail risk."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Garrett Downs",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/11/minnesota-wisconsin-primaries-hong-flanagan-craig-run-in-key-races.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-12T09:07:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Francesca Hong and David Crowley are locked in a too-close-to-call Democratic gubernatorial primary in Wisconsin, with progressives and moderates in a tight race.",
      "publisher": "Garrett Downs",
      "published_at": "2026-08-11T14:06:40.503Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/11/minnesota-wisconsin-primaries-hong-flanagan-craig-run-in-key-races.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi is the venue; the 1% price reflects strong prior that even close Wisconsin primaries resolve without prolonged certification disputes."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxwidgov2nd-govwinomd26-2/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXWIDGOV2ND-GOVWINOMD26-2-DCRO",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Garrett Downs: Democrats clash again in Minnesota and Wisconsin primaries as big midt",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/11/minnesota-wisconsin-primaries-hong-flanagan-craig-run-in-key-races.html",
      "published_at": "2026-08-11T14:06:40.503Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-12T09:07:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026081108 published 2026-08-11T14:06:40.503Z signature sha256-da52382f53b… ← underlying event all signals →