Mizusawa locks in as Virginia GOP Senate pick at 94%

Name: Mizusawa locks in as Virginia GOP Senate pick at 94%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-04T10:33:57+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

94% · $11K 24h

record: CMSIG20260804VS07 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-ZF0DQ0MY94 | published: 2026-08-04

4-bullet brief | narrative

At 94%, Kalshi treats Mizusawa's Republican Senate nomination in Virginia as effectively decided.
24h volume of $10.8K is 33% of all-time, a sharp single-session share for a near-resolved contract.
Fresh volume at this price level suggests late entrants are closing out opposing positions rather than opening new ones.
Resolves on the certified 2026 Virginia Republican Senate primary result.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity kalshi_vol_24h: $10.8K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxsenatevar-26/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSENATEVAR-26-BMIZ

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-bert-mizusawa-be-the-republican-nom-vol-10834/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-bert-mizusawa-be-the-republican-nom-vol-10834.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-bert-mizusawa-be-the-republican-nom-vol-10834")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260804VS07",
  "published_at": "2026-08-04T10:33:57+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZF0DQ0MY94",
  "target_event_slug": "kxsenatevar-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Virginia Republican Senate nominee be determined before the 2026 election?",
  "bullets": [
    "At 94%, Kalshi treats Mizusawa's Republican Senate nomination in Virginia as effectively decided.",
    "24h volume of $10.8K is 33% of all-time, a sharp single-session share for a near-resolved contract.",
    "Fresh volume at this price level suggests late entrants are closing out opposing positions rather than opening new ones.",
    "Resolves on the certified 2026 Virginia Republican Senate primary result."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 10834.24
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxsenatevar-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSENATEVAR-26-BMIZ",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Virginia Republican Senate nominee be determin",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxsenatevar-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-04T10:33:57+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260804VS07 published 2026-08-04T10:33:57+00:00 signature sha256-4cfdfafe597… ← underlying event all signals →