Heavy trading backs July CPI rising more than -0.1%

Name: Heavy trading backs July CPI rising more than -0.1%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-08T08:36:03+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

89% · $28K 24h

record: CMSIG20260808VS06 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39 | published: 2026-08-08

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices July CPI rising more than -0.1% at 89%, traders largely rule out a deeper deflation print.
24h volume of $28K is 45% of all-time, nearly half of all lifetime trading in a single session.
Fresh engagement ahead of the July CPI release indicates traders are locking in the consensus view.
Resolves on the official July 2026 CPI release from the BLS.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity kalshi_vol_24h: $28.0K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxcpi-26jul/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPI-26JUL-T-0.1

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-cpi-rise-more-than-0-1-in-july-20-vol-27990/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-cpi-rise-more-than-0-1-in-july-20-vol-27990.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-cpi-rise-more-than-0-1-in-july-20-vol-27990")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260808VS06",
  "published_at": "2026-08-08T08:36:03+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26jul",
  "event_question": "CPI month-over-month change, July 2026",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices July CPI rising more than -0.1% at 89%, traders largely rule out a deeper deflation print.",
    "24h volume of $28K is 45% of all-time, nearly half of all lifetime trading in a single session.",
    "Fresh engagement ahead of the July CPI release indicates traders are locking in the consensus view.",
    "Resolves on the official July 2026 CPI release from the BLS."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 27990.62
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxcpi-26jul/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPI-26JUL-T-0.1",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: CPI month-over-month change, July 2026",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcpi-26jul",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-08T08:36:03+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260808VS06 published 2026-08-08T08:36:03+00:00 signature sha256-bfad783355a… ← underlying event all signals →