CPI month-over-month change, July 2026 [ resolves 2026-08 – 2026-11 ]
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in July 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ -0.4% | 2026-08-12 | 100.0% | $1 | $8.4K | A | KXCPI-26JUL-T-0.4 | ||
| ≥ -0.1% | 2026-08-12 | 100.0% | $3.1K | $28K | A | KXCPI-26JUL-T-0.1 | ||
| ≥ 0% | 2026-08-12 | 100.0% | $12K | $64K | A | KXCPI-26JUL-T0.0 | ||
| ≥ 0.1% | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | $4.1K | $39K | A | KXCPI-26JUL-T0.1 | ||
| ≥ -0.3% | 2026-11-11 | 97.0% | — | $8.7K | A | KXCPI-26JUL-T-0.3 | ||
| ≥ -0.2% | 2026-11-11 | 97.0% | $471 | $20K | A | KXCPI-26JUL-T-0.2 | ||
| ≥ 0.2% | 2026-11-11 | 7.0% | $156 | $4.0K | A | KXCPI-26JUL-T0.2 | ||
| ≥ 0.3% | 2026-11-11 | 2.0% | $58 | $730 | A | KXCPI-26JUL-T0.3 | ||
| ≥ 0.4% | 2026-11-11 | 1.0% | $0 | $169 | A | KXCPI-26JUL-T0.4 | ||
| ≥ 0.5% | 2026-11-11 | 3.0% | $2 | $753 | A | KXCPI-26JUL-T0.5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.4% (single-decimal) in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (August 12, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will CPI rise more than -0.4% in July 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 100% |
| YES | Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in July 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 100% |
| YES | Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in July 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 100% |
| NO | Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in July 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (4 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Odds favor a positive July CPI print on fresh volume 63% · $171K 24h
- Kalshi prices a positive July CPI monthly change at 63%, modest inflation lean, not a strong conviction.
- $171K in 24h is 57% of all-time volume, suggesting this market is relatively new and drawing first-time positioning.
- Trading ahead of the August CPI release date implies desks are laying risk before the data drop.
- Resolves on the BLS July 2026 CPI monthly change figure.
- July CPI monthly change priced near flat to slightly negative Kalshi ladder
- The prediction market ladder prices the July 2026 CPI monthly change in the 0.0% to +0.1% range: 60% above 0.0%, only 17% above +0.1%.
- June CPI (333.95) was actually lower than May (335.12), consistent with the ladder's tilt toward a flat or marginally positive July print.
- A near-zero monthly CPI would reinforce the weak-jobs narrative driving the S&P record and keep Fed hike bets capped near 60%.
- Resolution depends on the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release; any upside surprise above +0.2% is priced at only 7% probability.
- July CPI deflation floor bet holds near certainty at 98% 98% · $12K 24h
- Kalshi prices a July 2026 CPI reading above -0.4% month-over-month at 98%, near-certain the print will be less negative than that threshold.
- 24h volume of $12K equals 42% of all-time handle, a notable concentration ahead of the July CPI release.
- Volume at 98% pricing suggests traders are positioning against a tail-risk deflation print, confirming consensus expectations of a mild or positive CPI.
- Resolves on the official BLS July 2026 CPI release; residual 2% risk reflects extreme-downside uncertainty only.
- Heavy trading backs July CPI rising more than -0.1% 89% · $28K 24h
- Kalshi prices July CPI rising more than -0.1% at 89%, traders largely rule out a deeper deflation print.
- 24h volume of $28K is 45% of all-time, nearly half of all lifetime trading in a single session.
- Fresh engagement ahead of the July CPI release indicates traders are locking in the consensus view.
- Resolves on the official July 2026 CPI release from the BLS.
- July CPI monthly change priced near flat to slightly positive Kalshi ladder
- Ladder implies the July 2026 CPI monthly change in the 0.0%-0.1% range: 60% above 0.0% but only 21% above 0.1%.
- June CPI of 333.95 was below May's 335.12, consistent with the ladder's lean toward a near-flat monthly print.
- Services sector strength and rising input costs (Story 4) provide upside risk, but the ladder puts only 10% probability above 0.2%.
- Resolves via BLS CPI release for July 2026; the survey covers urban consumer prices for all items.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcpi-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcpi-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcpi-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
"slug": "kxcpi-26jul",
"question": "CPI month-over-month change, July 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"cpi-inflation",
"us-macroeconomic",
"july-2026",
"monthly-economic-indicator",
"price-index"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 175172,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Source Agency",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}