Heavy trading backs Democrats locking up a House majority

Name: Heavy trading backs Democrats locking up a House majority
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-11-04T07:48:42+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

100% · $4.2M 24h

record: CMSIG20261104VS01 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2 | published: 2026-11-04

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi contract prices Democratic House majority at 100%, market treats outcome as resolved.
46% of all-time volume printed in 24h, reflecting late capital confirming the call.
Price at ceiling suggests live results or early vote reporting has collapsed remaining uncertainty.
Resolves on certified seat count post-2026 midterms.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity kalshi_vol_24h: $4.22M

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxbluewavecombo-27feb/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUEWAVECOMBO-27FEB

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-democrats-hold-218-or-more-seats-in-vol-4215964/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-democrats-hold-218-or-more-seats-in-vol-4215964.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-democrats-hold-218-or-more-seats-in-vol-4215964")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261104VS01",
  "published_at": "2026-11-04T07:48:42+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbluewavecombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue wave in 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi contract prices Democratic House majority at 100%, market treats outcome as resolved.",
    "46% of all-time volume printed in 24h, reflecting late capital confirming the call.",
    "Price at ceiling suggests live results or early vote reporting has collapsed remaining uncertainty.",
    "Resolves on certified seat count post-2026 midterms."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 4215964.42
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxbluewavecombo-27feb/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUEWAVECOMBO-27FEB",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will there be a blue wave in 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbluewavecombo-27feb",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-04T07:48:42+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20261104VS01 published 2026-11-04T07:48:42+00:00 signature sha256-16c2b33a49d… ← underlying event all signals →