Will there be a blue wave in 2026? [ resolves 2027-02-01 (181D) ]
Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND… | 2027-02-01 | 75.0% | $2.4K | $252K | C | KXBLUEWAVECO…FEB |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: "Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House?" uses SEATSCONGRESS, "Will Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?" uses SEATSCONGRESS. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.
This market will resolve based on the composition of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate on February 1, 2027. Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (3)
Bureau of Labor Statistics venue-listed Bureau of Labor Statistics venue-listed Federal Reserve Board of Governors venue-listed
recent wire items
- Blue wave in 2026 stays heavily favored two weeks out Kalshi 81%
- Kalshi prices an 81% probability of a blue wave in 2026; Polymarket independently prices 82%, a rare cross-venue consensus.
- Trump's aggressive midterm campaigning is not moving either market; both venues hold near identical high probabilities, showing the rally blitz is being discounted.
- Kalshi separately prices a blue tsunami at only 53%, suggesting markets see a strong Democratic outcome as likely but an overwhelming sweep as coin-flip territory.
- Kalshi resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics (unusual resolution source noted); Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle.
- Blue wave in 2026 midterms stays the favored outcome Kalshi 81%
- Kalshi prices a blue wave in the 2026 midterms at 81%, a strong majority outcome.
- The policy analysis citing favorable Democratic fundamentals is consistent with the Kalshi contract's heavy lean toward a Democratic wave result.
- A related Kalshi contract puts a blue tsunami, a larger Democratic sweep, at 44%, suggesting the market sees a significant but not historically dominant wave as most likely.
- Resolves via official electoral commission results; the gap between 81% wave and 44% tsunami pricing implies the market expects a meaningful but bounded Democratic gain.
- A blue wave in 2026 holds above 75 percent odds Kalshi 86%
- The Kalshi contract on a blue wave in 2026 sits at 86%, resolving via Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- GOP internal alarm over red-seat vulnerability is consistent with the strong Kalshi pricing, the market is not fading the bearish Republican narrative.
- A companion Kalshi contract on Republicans holding at least one chamber of Congress after the midterms prices at 61%, implying the market leaves meaningful room for a split outcome even as the blue-wave contract runs high.
- The gap between 86% blue-wave and 61% GOP chamber retention suggests the market sees overlapping scenarios, a Democratic wave that does not fully sweep both chambers.
- Blue wave in 2026 stays heavily favored Kalshi 87%
- Kalshi puts an 87% probability on a blue wave materializing in the 2026 midterms.
- Polling showing Democrats competitive in traditionally Republican states is consistent with Kalshi's heavy pricing of a Democratic sweep.
- The companion Polymarket contract on a blue wave sits at 85%, a near-identical read across venues with no meaningful gap.
- A separate Kalshi contract puts only 64% on Republicans holding at least one chamber, implying the market sees a full Democratic takeover as the modal outcome.
- Blue wave in 2026 holds near 75% as Democrats gain edge Kalshi 75%
- Kalshi prices 75% on a blue wave materializing in the 2026 midterms, resolving via Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- The Cornell academic forecast aligns with the market's strong Democratic lean, not at odds with it.
- Companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-6CY3Y4C610) puts only 41% on a blue tsunami, a meaningful gap suggesting markets see a substantial but not dominant Democratic sweep.
- Republican control of at least one chamber (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) sits at 48%, broadly consistent with 75% blue wave odds if the Senate outcome remains contested.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbluewavecombo-27feb/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbluewavecombo-27feb |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbluewavecombo-27feb") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2",
"slug": "kxbluewavecombo-27feb",
"question": "Will there be a blue wave in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-midterms-2026",
"democratic-performance",
"house-seats",
"election-outcomes",
"political-wave"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 252496,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_none"
],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "no_source_stated",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}