Maduro 60-year sentence odds hold at 34% through surge

Name: Maduro 60-year sentence odds hold at 34% through surge
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-03T12:31:50+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

34% · $36K 24h

record: CMSIG20260903VS02 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-DYN1XGWYT5 | published: 2026-09-03

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices a 60-year sentence at 34%, meaningful probability but the market leans against it.
24h volume of $36K represents 41% of all-time flow, marking sharp renewed attention to the outcome.
Geopolitical developments or court proceedings in Venezuela are likely pulling fresh capital into the contract.
Resolves on formal sentencing of Nicolás Maduro to at least 60 years in prison.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $36.2K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/maduro-prison-time-527/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xce500e0cdc77863e3ae46ea2f8fc7afea2e94e703761e4004065e23fe8629881

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-nicol-s-maduro-be-sentenced-to-at-l-vol-36156/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-nicol-s-maduro-be-sentenced-to-at-l-vol-36156.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-nicol-s-maduro-be-sentenced-to-at-l-vol-36156")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260903VS02",
  "published_at": "2026-09-03T12:31:50+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-DYN1XGWYT5",
  "target_event_slug": "maduro-prison-time-527",
  "event_question": "Will Nicolás Maduro serve prison time?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 60-year sentence at 34%, meaningful probability but the market leans against it.",
    "24h volume of $36K represents 41% of all-time flow, marking sharp renewed attention to the outcome.",
    "Geopolitical developments or court proceedings in Venezuela are likely pulling fresh capital into the contract.",
    "Resolves on formal sentencing of Nicolás Maduro to at least 60 years in prison."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 36156
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/maduro-prison-time-527/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Nicolás Maduro serve prison time?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/maduro-prison-time-527",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-03T12:31:50+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260903VS02 published 2026-09-03T12:31:50+00:00 signature sha256-cebbfe98fbf… ← underlying event all signals →