Mureșan as Romania PM draws fresh buying at 34%

Name: Mureșan as Romania PM draws fresh buying at 34%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-18T12:39:43+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

34% · $34K 24h

record: CMSIG20260918VS03 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-JS0LYJRQ64 | published: 2026-09-18

4-bullet brief | narrative

34% puts Mureșan as an underdog but within serious contention for the prime ministerial role.
61% of all-time volume hit in 24 hours, pointing to a specific political development driving attention.
A coalition negotiation update or public nomination signal likely triggered fresh positioning.
Resolves when Romania's next prime minister is officially confirmed.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $33.7K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/next-prime-minister-of-romania-732/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xdc9e6c1f58ba04a2cf7e72f44a8a51880e977ffeb1ac971f128658ac5074b8ee

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-siegfried-mure-an-be-the-next-prime-vol-33665/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-siegfried-mure-an-be-the-next-prime-vol-33665.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-siegfried-mure-an-be-the-next-prime-vol-33665")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260918VS03",
  "published_at": "2026-09-18T12:39:43+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-JS0LYJRQ64",
  "target_event_slug": "next-prime-minister-of-romania-732",
  "event_question": "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Romania?",
  "bullets": [
    "34% puts Mureșan as an underdog but within serious contention for the prime ministerial role.",
    "61% of all-time volume hit in 24 hours, pointing to a specific political development driving attention.",
    "A coalition negotiation update or public nomination signal likely triggered fresh positioning.",
    "Resolves when Romania's next prime minister is officially confirmed."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 33665.220649999996
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/next-prime-minister-of-romania-732/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Who will be the next Prime Minister of Romania?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-prime-minister-of-romania-732",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-18T12:39:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260918VS03 published 2026-09-18T12:39:43+00:00 signature sha256-b0fa486e8a4… ← underlying event all signals →