Fed hold in September stays a coin-flip bet

Name: Fed hold in September stays a coin-flip bet
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-30T10:21:41+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

39% · $1.3M 24h

record: CMSIG20260730VS00 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-LZ9Q8BDFL0 | published: 2026-07-30

4-bullet brief | narrative

39% pricing implies markets lean against a pause, a hike or cut is seen as more likely than no action.
$1.25M in 24h volume equals 56% of all-time, the single largest trading day this contract has seen.
Surge arrives ahead of the September FOMC window as macro data sharpens the stakes on the Fed's next move.
Resolves on the September 2026 FOMC decision; traders are actively repricing hold probability in real time.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $1.25M

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/fed-decision-in-september-762/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xa3b36b2d6104d34af4e6c6215fc818e43352e78a748fbfb0b85e3a35f71dec9a

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-vol-1254937/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-vol-1254937.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-vol-1254937")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260730VS00",
  "published_at": "2026-07-30T10:21:41+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LZ9Q8BDFL0",
  "target_event_slug": "fed-decision-in-september-762",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in September?",
  "bullets": [
    "39% pricing implies markets lean against a pause, a hike or cut is seen as more likely than no action.",
    "$1.25M in 24h volume equals 56% of all-time, the single largest trading day this contract has seen.",
    "Surge arrives ahead of the September FOMC window as macro data sharpens the stakes on the Fed's next move.",
    "Resolves on the September 2026 FOMC decision; traders are actively repricing hold probability in real time."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 1254937.368038
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/fed-decision-in-september-762/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in September?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fed-decision-in-september-762",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-30T10:21:41+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260730VS00 published 2026-07-30T10:21:41+00:00 signature sha256-2f4c264ba16… ← underlying event all signals →