Together party stays a heavy underdog despite fresh Israeli election volume

Name: Together party stays a heavy underdog despite fresh Israeli election volume
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-25T07:48:52+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

1% · $133K 24h

record: CMSIG20261025VS01 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-SV1SCXFSY0 | published: 2026-10-25

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket holds Together's odds at 1%, near-zero probability of topping the 2026 Israeli legislative seat count.
24h volume of $132K represents 27% of all-time handle, indicating a notable but not dominant attention spike.
Fresh volume may reflect positioning ahead of polling updates or coalition realignment news in Israeli political coverage.
Contract resolves on official Knesset seat tallies from the 2026 Israeli legislative election.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $132.8K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/israeli-legislative-election-winner/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x4e9cff8a3aeac036225fedcc98af9b0d55284b3f430b599e7f61b059c1e177af

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-together-win-the-most-seats-in-the-vol-132797/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-together-win-the-most-seats-in-the-vol-132797.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-together-win-the-most-seats-in-the-vol-132797")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261025VS01",
  "published_at": "2026-10-25T07:48:52+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-SV1SCXFSY0",
  "target_event_slug": "israeli-legislative-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the Israeli legislative election result in a clear winner by the next scheduled election date?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket holds Together's odds at 1%, near-zero probability of topping the 2026 Israeli legislative seat count.",
    "24h volume of $132K represents 27% of all-time handle, indicating a notable but not dominant attention spike.",
    "Fresh volume may reflect positioning ahead of polling updates or coalition realignment news in Israeli political coverage.",
    "Contract resolves on official Knesset seat tallies from the 2026 Israeli legislative election."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 132797.819267
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/israeli-legislative-election-winner/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Israeli legislative election result in a clear",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/israeli-legislative-election-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T07:48:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20261025VS01 published 2026-10-25T07:48:52+00:00 signature sha256-5514ede3cb5… ← underlying event all signals →