CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,450 EVENTS / ~16,400 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Traders lock in Project Freedom restart by June 30

100% · $3.1M 24h
record: CMSIG20260613VS00 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-8BYGC61G14 | published: 2026-06-13
4-bullet brief | narrative
  • Polymarket prices Project Freedom restart by June 30 at 100%, market treats outcome as resolved.
  • 24h volume of $3.1M is 59% of all-time handle, signaling a decisive terminal flow.
  • Late-stage capital deployment at ceiling price suggests confirming event or announcement imminent.
  • Resolves June 30; near-zero residual uncertainty leaves little actionable edge.
atomic briefs
[01] volume_anomaly
liquidity poly_vol_24h: $3.14M
evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine
llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict
wire_eligible
judge_confidence
0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template
volume_spike_v1 github · auditable
citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

external
venue_a
polymarket · 0xdfd4d487d004c266493bdf32551d7f018c7eb4b9325f42ac368dd5075eec36a9
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-trump-restart-project-freedom-by-ju-vol-3135487/
JSONREST API for developershttps://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-trump-restart-project-freedom-by-ju-vol-3135487.json
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_signal("will-trump-restart-project-freedom-by-ju-vol-3135487")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260613VS00",
  "published_at": "2026-06-13T10:26:10+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-8BYGC61G14",
  "target_event_slug": "will-trump-restart-project-freedom-by",
  "event_question": "Will Trump restart Project Freedom by 2025?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Project Freedom restart by June 30 at 100%, market treats outcome as resolved.",
    "24h volume of $3.1M is 59% of all-time handle, signaling a decisive terminal flow.",
    "Late-stage capital deployment at ceiling price suggests confirming event or announcement imminent.",
    "Resolves June 30; near-zero residual uncertainty leaves little actionable edge."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 3135487.8375099995
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/will-trump-restart-project-freedom-by/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Trump restart Project Freedom by 2025?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-trump-restart-project-freedom-by",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-13T10:26:10+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1
record CMSIG20260613VS00 published 2026-06-13T10:26:10+00:00 signature sha256-c3e02b8825e… ← underlying event all signals →