Odds stay near zero on United Russia claiming 280, 294 Duma seats

Name: Odds stay near zero on United Russia claiming 280, 294 Duma seats
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-08T12:34:41+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

1% · $11K 24h

record: CMSIG20260908VS04 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-MCHQSDBHW5 | published: 2026-09-08

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices this band at just 1%, the market strongly discounts a result this low for United Russia.
$11.1K in 24h equals 34% of all-time volume, running parallel to the 295, 309 band spike.
Near-zero pricing with double-digit all-time volume share suggests traders are closing out or hedging positions rather than initiating new longs.
Resolves on the official United Russia seat count in the next State Duma.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $11.1K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x070312637ff200867e1316b2a4e31c7f2492610c78dd0851608c23f6ef9f3d7a

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-united-russia-win-between-280-and-2-vol-11106/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-united-russia-win-between-280-and-2-vol-11106.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-united-russia-win-between-280-and-2-vol-11106")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260908VS04",
  "published_at": "2026-09-08T12:34:41+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MCHQSDBHW5",
  "target_event_slug": "how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election",
  "event_question": "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices this band at just 1%, the market strongly discounts a result this low for United Russia.",
    "$11.1K in 24h equals 34% of all-time volume, running parallel to the 295, 309 band spike.",
    "Near-zero pricing with double-digit all-time volume share suggests traders are closing out or hedging positions rather than initiating new longs.",
    "Resolves on the official United Russia seat count in the next State Duma."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 11106.92
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russi",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-08T12:34:41+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260908VS04 published 2026-09-08T12:34:41+00:00 signature sha256-d9ca68f913c… ← underlying event all signals →