United Russia 310-324 seat band trades under 25%

Name: United Russia 310-324 seat band trades under 25%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-03T12:31:50+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

24% · $23K 24h

record: CMSIG20260903VS03 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-MCHQSDBHW5 | published: 2026-09-03

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices the specific seat band at 24%, traders lean toward a result outside this narrow range.
24h volume of $23K is 49% of all-time flow, nearly half of all lifetime trading in one session.
Russian State Duma election campaign activity or polling shifts appear to be driving fresh positioning.
Resolves on the official seat count for United Russia in the next State Duma election.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $23.3K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x8e41c5c2c887553ea7cce7f3644b50c62c8ab55238b50e939048f6d71aae6d4c

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-united-russia-win-between-310-and-3-vol-23272/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-united-russia-win-between-310-and-3-vol-23272.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-united-russia-win-between-310-and-3-vol-23272")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260903VS03",
  "published_at": "2026-09-03T12:31:50+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MCHQSDBHW5",
  "target_event_slug": "how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election",
  "event_question": "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the specific seat band at 24%, traders lean toward a result outside this narrow range.",
    "24h volume of $23K is 49% of all-time flow, nearly half of all lifetime trading in one session.",
    "Russian State Duma election campaign activity or polling shifts appear to be driving fresh positioning.",
    "Resolves on the official seat count for United Russia in the next State Duma election."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 23272.316056
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russi",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-03T12:31:50+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260903VS03 published 2026-09-03T12:31:50+00:00 signature sha256-9f3577b6eb6… ← underlying event all signals →