Year-end Fed funds upper bound priced in the 3.50-3.75% range

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081703",
  "published_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Year-end 2026 Fed funds upper bound",
  "bullets": [
    "The prediction market ladder pins the year-end Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 98% above 3.50% but only 31% above 3.75%.",
    "The Reuters economist hold consensus aligns with this distribution, which implies no hike from current levels through December.",
    "The sharp drop from 98% to 31% between the 3.50% and 3.75% strikes reveals a clean consensus ceiling, any hike scenario is a clear minority view.",
    "Companion ladder CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3, which appears to reference a nearer meeting, shows 51% above 3.75% and 21% above 4.00%, implying slightly more near-term uncertainty."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Thomson Reuters",
          "source_url": "https://krro.com/2026/08/17/fed-to-hold-interest-rates-this-year-economists-say-sticking-to-their-view-reuters-poll/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-18T08:30:34+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A Reuters poll of economists unanimously expects the Fed to hold its key rate unchanged at the September meeting and through year-end.",
      "publisher": "Thomson Reuters",
      "published_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://krro.com/2026/08/17/fed-to-hold-interest-rates-this-year-economists-say-sticking-to-their-view-reuters-poll/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder resolves via Federal Reserve official rate announcement; the two ladders together suggest markets see minimal movement between now and year-end."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Thomson Reuters: Fed to hold interest rates this year, economists say, sticking to thei",
      "url": "https://krro.com/2026/08/17/fed-to-hold-interest-rates-this-year-economists-say-sticking-to-their-view-reuters-poll/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-18T08:30:34+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}