Will Congress pass an Iran war powers resolution by June 30? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 100.0% | $583 | $80K | C | 0xcb3c2e…ed4d |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official congressional voting records from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 100% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Iran war powers resolution passage odds anchored near zero Polymarket 10%
- Polymarket prices congressional passage of an Iran war powers resolution by June 30 at only 10%, despite the Senate vote succeeding.
- The market distinguishes a congressional vote from enacted law, Trump's veto threat is the dominant risk the price reflects.
- The Senate's rare rebuke of a sitting president is politically significant but the market treats veto override as highly unlikely before month-end.
- Resolves via Polymarket uma_oracle; a presidential signature or veto-proof override would be required for a YES resolution.
- Congress passing Iran war powers resolution by June 30 remains priced out Polymarket 4%
- Polymarket prices only a 4% chance Congress passes an Iran war powers resolution by June 30.
- The House vote is a genuine rebuke of the president, but the market implies the Senate is seen as a near-certain kill switch for the resolution.
- The House passage is a procedural milestone, yet Polymarket is effectively pricing a Senate block as near-certain within the month.
- Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the resolution must clear both chambers and survive any veto or procedural block before June 30.
- Iran war powers resolution by June 30 written off by markets Polymarket 4%
- Polymarket contract prices only 4% on Congress passing an Iran war-powers resolution by June 30.
- House passage happened, but the contract likely requires Senate passage too, explaining the sharp gap between the news and the price.
- Senate passage remains the key hurdle; without it, the resolution is symbolic and the contract likely resolves No.
- Resolves via uma_oracle; resolution almost certainly requires both chambers to pass a binding measure by June 30.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/congress-passes-iran-war-powers-resolution-by-june-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/congress-passes-iran-war-powers-resolution-by-june-30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("congress-passes-iran-war-powers-resolution-by-june-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KF5S4BY541",
"slug": "congress-passes-iran-war-powers-resolution-by-june-30",
"question": "Will Congress pass an Iran war powers resolution by June 30?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"geopolitics",
"congress",
"war-powers",
"iran",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 79747,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 54,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official congressional voting records",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}