Iran war powers resolution by June 30 written off by markets
Polymarket 4%
record: CMSIG2026060302 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-KF5S4BY541 | published: 2026-06-03
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Polymarket contract prices only 4% on Congress passing an Iran war-powers resolution by June 30.
- House passage happened, but the contract likely requires Senate passage too, explaining the sharp gap between the news and the price.
- Senate passage remains the key hurdle; without it, the resolution is symbolic and the contract likely resolves No.
- Resolves via uma_oracle; resolution almost certainly requires both chambers to pass a binding measure by June 30.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market
- story
- The US House passed a war-powers resolution directing Trump to end hostilities with Iran.exa_search → nhpr.org · as_of 2026-06-04T03:24:20+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- nhpr.org
- published_at
- 2026-06-03T17:49:52.000Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Polymarket at 4% reflects Senate blocking risk, not House action alone.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
external
- venue_a
- polymarket · 0xcb3c2e94aefd13bb09a72fdf74d44fa7b2ebe437b863e0621831c020bfd4ed4d
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-war-powers-resolution-passed-by-congress-polymarket-4-2026-06-03/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-war-powers-resolution-passed-by-congress-polymarket-4-2026-06-03.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("iran-war-powers-resolution-passed-by-congress-polymarket-4-2026-06-03") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026060302",
"published_at": "2026-06-03T17:49:52.000Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "lagging",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-KF5S4BY541",
"target_event_slug": "congress-passes-iran-war-powers-resolution-by-june-30",
"event_question": "Will Congress pass an Iran war powers resolution by June 30?",
"bullets": [
"Polymarket contract prices only 4% on Congress passing an Iran war-powers resolution by June 30.",
"House passage happened, but the contract likely requires Senate passage too, explaining the sharp gap between the news and the price.",
"Senate passage remains the key hurdle; without it, the resolution is symbolic and the contract likely resolves No.",
"Resolves via uma_oracle; resolution almost certainly requires both chambers to pass a binding measure by June 30."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "nhpr.org",
"source_url": "https://www.nhpr.org/2026-06-03/house-passes-war-powers-resolution-directing-trump-to-end-hostilities-with-iran",
"retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T03:24:20+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
},
"story": "The US House passed a war-powers resolution directing Trump to end hostilities with Iran.",
"publisher": "nhpr.org",
"published_at": "2026-06-03T17:49:52.000Z",
"source_url": "https://www.nhpr.org/2026-06-03/house-passes-war-powers-resolution-directing-trump-to-end-hostilities-with-iran"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Polymarket at 4% reflects Senate blocking risk, not House action alone."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/congress-passes-iran-war-powers-resolution-by-june-30/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": null,
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "nhpr.org: House passes war powers resolution directing Trump to end hostilities",
"url": "https://www.nhpr.org/2026-06-03/house-passes-war-powers-resolution-directing-trump-to-end-hostilities-with-iran",
"published_at": "2026-06-03T17:49:52.000Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T03:24:20+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "polymarket_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1