Congress passing Iran war powers resolution by June 30 remains priced out

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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060404",
  "published_at": "2026-06-04T03:50:26.000Z",
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  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-KF5S4BY541",
  "target_event_slug": "congress-passes-iran-war-powers-resolution-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will Congress pass an Iran war powers resolution by June 30?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only a 4% chance Congress passes an Iran war powers resolution by June 30.",
    "The House vote is a genuine rebuke of the president, but the market implies the Senate is seen as a near-certain kill switch for the resolution.",
    "The House passage is a procedural milestone, yet Polymarket is effectively pricing a Senate block as near-certain within the month.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the resolution must clear both chambers and survive any veto or procedural block before June 30."
  ],
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      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
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          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "thedailybeast.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-hit-with-huge-blow-as-republicans-vote-against-his-war-in-iran/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-05T12:03:19+00:00"
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      "story": "The House passed a war powers resolution to halt U.S. military action against Iran, with four Republicans joining Democrats in a 215-208 vote.",
      "publisher": "thedailybeast.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-04T03:50:26.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-hit-with-huge-blow-as-republicans-vote-against-his-war-in-iran/"
    },
    {
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      "field_provenance": {
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      "notes": "Polymarket at 4% sharply discounts the House vote's downstream impact, implying the Senate is viewed as a near-certain obstacle within the June 30 window."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
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      "cm_event": "/events/congress-passes-iran-war-powers-resolution-by-june-30/",
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  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "thedailybeast.com: Donald Trump Hit With Huge Blow as Republicans Vote Against His War in",
      "url": "https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-hit-with-huge-blow-as-republicans-vote-against-his-war-in-iran/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-04T03:50:26.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-05T12:03:19+00:00"
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