Markets put two-in-three odds on a 2026 Fed rate hike

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082802",
  "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4",
  "target_event_slug": "fed-rate-hike-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise its benchmark interest rate in 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract prices a 2026 Fed rate hike at 66%, reflecting majority-but-not-certain consensus.",
    "Warsh's explicit hike signaling is consistent with the 66% pricing, though markets are not treating a hike as a done deal.",
    "The companion Kalshi contract on rate hikes sits at 68%, showing tight cross-venue agreement and no meaningful arbitrage gap.",
    "Both contracts resolve via official Federal Reserve rate decisions; a September hike announcement would likely push both toward full pricing."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Christopher Rugaber, Associated Press",
          "source_url": "https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2026/08/28/fed-chair-warsh-signals-rate-hikes-may-be-needed-with-inflation-stubbornly-elevated/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T13:34:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled at Jackson Hole that rate hikes may be needed if inflation remains stubbornly elevated.",
      "publisher": "Christopher Rugaber, Associated Press",
      "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2026/08/28/fed-chair-warsh-signals-rate-hikes-may-be-needed-with-inflation-stubbornly-elevated/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 66% and Kalshi at 68% are in close agreement, reflecting that Warsh's hawkish tone is priced in but not yet treated as certain."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/fed-rate-hike-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Christopher Rugaber, Associated Press: Fed Chair Warsh signals rate hikes may be needed with inflation stubbo",
      "url": "https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2026/08/28/fed-chair-warsh-signals-rate-hikes-may-be-needed-with-inflation-stubbornly-elevated/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T13:34:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}