Blue wave in 2026 stays near fully priced
Kalshi 99%
record: CMSIG2026110503 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2 | published: 2026-11-05
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Kalshi prices the 2026 blue wave at 99%, reflecting near-certainty after Democrat wins across multiple projected races.
- NBC News projections of Democratic control of both chambers are consistent with the near-100% Kalshi read; the market had already moved well ahead of full call confirmations.
- ABC News separately reported Democrats are projected to take both the Senate and House, reinforcing the Kalshi pricing.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics per the listed source, an unusual resolver for an election outcome; resolution mechanics warrant monitoring for any definitional edge case.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
- story
- NBC News reported Democrats won several key races in the 2026 midterms, with vote counts still ongoing in Alaska, Mississippi, and Kansas after what has been called a Democratic sweep.exa_search → 0 NBC News NBC News · as_of 2026-11-08T07:47:56+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- 0 NBC News NBC News
- published_at
- 2026-11-05T12:31:10.000Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Kalshi at 99% is fully aligned with major outlet projections of a Democratic sweep in the 2026 midterms.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
- cm_event
- /events/kxbluewavecombo-27feb/
external
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-2026-kalshi-99-2026-11-05/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-2026-kalshi-99-2026-11-05.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("blue-wave-2026-kalshi-99-2026-11-05") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026110503",
"published_at": "2026-11-05T12:31:10.000Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "lagging",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2",
"target_event_slug": "kxbluewavecombo-27feb",
"event_question": "Will there be a blue wave in 2026?",
"bullets": [
"Kalshi prices the 2026 blue wave at 99%, reflecting near-certainty after Democrat wins across multiple projected races.",
"NBC News projections of Democratic control of both chambers are consistent with the near-100% Kalshi read; the market had already moved well ahead of full call confirmations.",
"ABC News separately reported Democrats are projected to take both the Senate and House, reinforcing the Kalshi pricing.",
"Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics per the listed source, an unusual resolver for an election outcome; resolution mechanics warrant monitoring for any definitional edge case."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "0 NBC News NBC News",
"source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/live-blog/election-results-house-senate-trump-congress-live-updates-rcna607549",
"retrieved_at": "2026-11-08T07:47:56+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
},
"story": "NBC News reported Democrats won several key races in the 2026 midterms, with vote counts still ongoing in Alaska, Mississippi, and Kansas after what has been called a Democratic sweep.",
"publisher": "0 NBC News NBC News",
"published_at": "2026-11-05T12:31:10.000Z",
"source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/live-blog/election-results-house-senate-trump-congress-live-updates-rcna607549"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Kalshi at 99% is fully aligned with major outlet projections of a Democratic sweep in the 2026 midterms."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/kxbluewavecombo-27feb/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUEWAVECOMBO-27FEB",
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "0 NBC News NBC News: Vote counts in Alaska, Mississippi and Kansas continue after Democrati",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/live-blog/election-results-house-senate-trump-congress-live-updates-rcna607549",
"published_at": "2026-11-05T12:31:10.000Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-11-08T07:47:56+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "kalshi_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1