Blue wave in 2026 stays near fully priced on Kalshi
Kalshi 99%
record: CMSIG2026110803 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2 | published: 2026-11-08
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Kalshi contract on a 2026 blue wave sits at 99%, consistent with confirmed Democratic gains in both chambers.
- The news of large Democratic majorities aligns with the near-certainty pricing; the market is not fading the outcome.
- Resolution is via the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an unusual source for an electoral question, traders should verify the settlement criteria carefully.
- No contradictory electoral contracts with live prices were found; the 99% read stands unchallenged in today's data.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
- story
- Post-midterm coverage confirms Democrats won significant majorities in both chambers, with Congress now preparing for a lame-duck session.exa_search → Ryan Mancini · as_of 2026-11-08T14:44:20+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- Ryan Mancini
- published_at
- 2026-11-08T13:35:47.000Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Kalshi contract resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics; the 99% price is fully consistent with reported Democratic midterm gains.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
- cm_event
- /events/kxbluewavecombo-27feb/
external
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-2026-kalshi-99-2026-11-08/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-2026-kalshi-99-2026-11-08.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("blue-wave-2026-kalshi-99-2026-11-08") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026110803",
"published_at": "2026-11-08T13:35:47.000Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "lagging",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2",
"target_event_slug": "kxbluewavecombo-27feb",
"event_question": "Will there be a blue wave in 2026?",
"bullets": [
"Kalshi contract on a 2026 blue wave sits at 99%, consistent with confirmed Democratic gains in both chambers.",
"The news of large Democratic majorities aligns with the near-certainty pricing; the market is not fading the outcome.",
"Resolution is via the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an unusual source for an electoral question, traders should verify the settlement criteria carefully.",
"No contradictory electoral contracts with live prices were found; the 99% read stands unchallenged in today's data."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "Ryan Mancini",
"source_url": "https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6206264-live-trump-60-minutes-congress-midterms/",
"retrieved_at": "2026-11-08T14:44:20+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
},
"story": "Post-midterm coverage confirms Democrats won significant majorities in both chambers, with Congress now preparing for a lame-duck session.",
"publisher": "Ryan Mancini",
"published_at": "2026-11-08T13:35:47.000Z",
"source_url": "https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6206264-live-trump-60-minutes-congress-midterms/"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics; the 99% price is fully consistent with reported Democratic midterm gains."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/kxbluewavecombo-27feb/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUEWAVECOMBO-27FEB",
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "Ryan Mancini: Live updates: Donald Trump sits for post-midterms interview; Congress",
"url": "https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6206264-live-trump-60-minutes-congress-midterms/",
"published_at": "2026-11-08T13:35:47.000Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-11-08T14:44:20+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "kalshi_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1