July CPI monthly change priced near flat to slightly negative
Kalshi ladder
record: CMSIG2026081103 | category: pre-event-pricing | target: CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39 | published: 2026-08-11
4-bullet brief | narrative
- The prediction market ladder prices the July 2026 CPI monthly change in the 0.0% to +0.1% range: 60% above 0.0%, only 17% above +0.1%.
- June CPI (333.95) was actually lower than May (335.12), consistent with the ladder's tilt toward a flat or marginally positive July print.
- A near-zero monthly CPI would reinforce the weak-jobs narrative driving the S&P record and keep Fed hike bets capped near 60%.
- Resolution depends on the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release; any upside surprise above +0.2% is priced at only 7% probability.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
- story
- CPI data showing stagnant consumer prices in recent months sets the stage for the July inflation report now in focus.exa_search → exa.ai · as_of 2026-08-11T08:49:29+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- exa.ai
- published_at
- 2026-08-11T08:47:04.772Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Ladder distribution; resolution source unspecified but tracks BLS CPI release; sharp drop from 60% at 0.0% to 17% at +0.1% marks the consensus ceiling.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
- cm_event
- /events/kxcpi-26jul/
external
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/july-2026-cpi-monthly-change-seen-0-0-to-0-1-ladder-2026-08-11/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/july-2026-cpi-monthly-change-seen-0-0-to-0-1-ladder-2026-08-11.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("july-2026-cpi-monthly-change-seen-0-0-to-0-1-ladder-2026-08-11") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026081103",
"published_at": "2026-08-11T08:47:04.772Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
"target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26jul",
"event_question": "July 2026 CPI monthly change",
"bullets": [
"The prediction market ladder prices the July 2026 CPI monthly change in the 0.0% to +0.1% range: 60% above 0.0%, only 17% above +0.1%.",
"June CPI (333.95) was actually lower than May (335.12), consistent with the ladder's tilt toward a flat or marginally positive July print.",
"A near-zero monthly CPI would reinforce the weak-jobs narrative driving the S&P record and keep Fed hike bets capped near 60%.",
"Resolution depends on the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release; any upside surprise above +0.2% is priced at only 7% probability."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "exa.ai",
"source_url": "https://exa.ai/library/markets/economy/inflation?date=2026-08-11",
"retrieved_at": "2026-08-11T08:49:29+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
},
"story": "CPI data showing stagnant consumer prices in recent months sets the stage for the July inflation report now in focus.",
"publisher": "exa.ai",
"published_at": "2026-08-11T08:47:04.772Z",
"source_url": "https://exa.ai/library/markets/economy/inflation?date=2026-08-11"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Ladder distribution; resolution source unspecified but tracks BLS CPI release; sharp drop from 60% at 0.0% to 17% at +0.1% marks the consensus ceiling."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/kxcpi-26jul/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPI-26JUL-T0.1",
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "exa.ai: U.S. Inflation, Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers: 333.95",
"url": "https://exa.ai/library/markets/economy/inflation?date=2026-08-11",
"published_at": "2026-08-11T08:47:04.772Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-08-11T08:49:29+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "kalshi_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1