CPI above 3.7 percent consensus anchors on tariff shock

Name: CPI above 3.7 percent consensus anchors on tariff shock
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-11T15:32:15.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026071103 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4 | published: 2026-07-11

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder prices 72% on CPI above 3.7% for the year ending July 2026, with probability collapsing to 24% above 3.8% and 4% above 3.9%.
Fed officials divided on inflation views is consistent with a distribution clustered tightly between 3.7% and 3.8%, not at a clean consensus level.
The sharp drop from 72% to 24% between 3.7% and 3.8% shows the market has a narrow modal range, not broad uncertainty.
Resolves via official CPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the 12-month period ending in July 2026.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Fed officials are divided on US inflation views even as home prices hit all-time highs, adding to the Fed's policy dilemma.exa_search → MICHELLE CHAPMAN - AP Business Writer · as_of 2026-07-12T09:47:51+00:00
publisher: MICHELLE CHAPMAN - AP Business Writer
published_at: 2026-07-11T15:32:15.000Z
source_url: https://www.yoursourceone.com/news/national_news/america-in-focus-fed-officials-divided-on-us-inflation-views-us-home-prices-hit-all/article_c409781b-cb70-5e9b-a6e5-16c769a248fa.html

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder covers 21 strikes from 2.5% to 4.5%; probability mass is tightly clustered at the 3.7-3.8% band.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxcpiyoy-26jun/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.8

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/july-cpi-above-3-7-kalshi-ladder-72-2026-07-11/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/july-cpi-above-3-7-kalshi-ladder-72-2026-07-11.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("july-cpi-above-3-7-kalshi-ladder-72-2026-07-11")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071103",
  "published_at": "2026-07-11T15:32:15.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpiyoy-26jun",
  "event_question": "CPI inflation rate (year ending July 2026)",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 72% on CPI above 3.7% for the year ending July 2026, with probability collapsing to 24% above 3.8% and 4% above 3.9%.",
    "Fed officials divided on inflation views is consistent with a distribution clustered tightly between 3.7% and 3.8%, not at a clean consensus level.",
    "The sharp drop from 72% to 24% between 3.7% and 3.8% shows the market has a narrow modal range, not broad uncertainty.",
    "Resolves via official CPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the 12-month period ending in July 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "MICHELLE CHAPMAN - AP Business Writer",
          "source_url": "https://www.yoursourceone.com/news/national_news/america-in-focus-fed-officials-divided-on-us-inflation-views-us-home-prices-hit-all/article_c409781b-cb70-5e9b-a6e5-16c769a248fa.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-12T09:47:51+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed officials are divided on US inflation views even as home prices hit all-time highs, adding to the Fed's policy dilemma.",
      "publisher": "MICHELLE CHAPMAN - AP Business Writer",
      "published_at": "2026-07-11T15:32:15.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.yoursourceone.com/news/national_news/america-in-focus-fed-officials-divided-on-us-inflation-views-us-home-prices-hit-all/article_c409781b-cb70-5e9b-a6e5-16c769a248fa.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder covers 21 strikes from 2.5% to 4.5%; probability mass is tightly clustered at the 3.7-3.8% band."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxcpiyoy-26jun/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.8",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "MICHELLE CHAPMAN - AP Business Writer: America In Focus: Fed officials divided on US inflation views; US home",
      "url": "https://www.yoursourceone.com/news/national_news/america-in-focus-fed-officials-divided-on-us-inflation-views-us-home-prices-hit-all/article_c409781b-cb70-5e9b-a6e5-16c769a248fa.html",
      "published_at": "2026-07-11T15:32:15.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-12T09:47:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026071103 published 2026-07-11T15:32:15.000Z signature sha256-42c9bef0b1b… ← underlying event all signals →