What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year? [ resolves 2026-10 – 2026-12 ]
Will Cristobal be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 21 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaias | 2026-10-08 | 100.0% | — | $50 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…ISA | ||
| Cristobal | 2026-12-01 | 51.0% | $34 | $4.5K | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…CRI | ||
| Dolly | 2026-12-01 | 26.0% | $50 | $2.6K | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…DOL | ||
| Edouard | 2026-12-01 | 16.0% | $7 | $1.1K | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…EDO | ||
| Fay | 2026-12-01 | 8.0% | $2 | $361 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…FAY | ||
| Gonzalo | 2026-12-01 | 3.0% | $0 | $181 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…GON | ||
| Hanna | 2026-12-01 | 3.0% | — | $179 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…HAN | ||
| Nana | 2026-12-01 | 3.0% | — | $269 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…NAN | ||
| Arthur | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $1.1K | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…ART | ||
| Bertha | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $1.1K | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…BER | ||
| Josephine | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | $0 | $75 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…JOS | ||
| Kyle | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $44 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…KYL | ||
| Leah | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $33 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…LEA | ||
| Marco | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $62 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…MAR | ||
| Omar | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $87 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…OMA | ||
| Paulette | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $23 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…PAU | ||
| Rene | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $25 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…REN | ||
| Sally | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $24 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…SAL | ||
| Teddy | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $23 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…TED | ||
| Vicky | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $34 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…VIC | ||
| Wilfred | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $24 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…WIL |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | National Weather Service | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a storm named Arthur is the first storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market resolves Yes for the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then all markets resolve to No.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "National Weather Service" sources (2) · single authority
National Weather Service venue-listed National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Isaias be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026? | kalshi | 2026-10-08 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Isaias as the first 2026 Atlantic hurricane trades as a near-certainty 99% · $11K 24h
- Market at 99%, contract is effectively resolved in traders' minds, with Isaias already named.
- 24h volume of $11K is 27% of all-time, latecomers capturing near-riskless value as the contract closes.
- Storm has already been named Isaias, making residual trading a settlement arbitrage, not a forecast.
- Resolves when official NHC naming sequence for the 2026 Atlantic season is confirmed.
- Isaias as 2026's first Atlantic hurricane is all but priced in 99% · $13K 24h
- Kalshi prices Isaias as the first named Atlantic hurricane of 2026 at 99%, leaving almost no uncertainty.
- 34% of all-time volume, $12.8K, arrived in 24 hours, likely confirming a storm already in progress or imminently named.
- Near-certainty pricing with fresh volume suggests the market is settling rather than discovering, final capital positioning at the finish line.
- Resolves once Isaias is officially classified as the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season.
- Isaias leads the 2026 Atlantic season at 97% 97% · $13K 24h
- Kalshi prices Isaias as the first named Atlantic hurricane of 2026 at 97%, indicating the storm has already achieved or is on the verge of hurricane status.
- 44% of all-time volume hit in 24 hours as traders finalize positions ahead of imminent meteorological resolution.
- Volume at near-certain odds reflects late confirming trades as NHC advisories track the storm's intensification in real time.
- Resolves YES if Isaias is officially designated the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2026 season by NHC.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VWP9GBVJX7",
"slug": "kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl",
"question": "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"atlantic-hurricanes",
"weather-prediction",
"annual-naming",
"2026",
"seasonal-forecasting"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 21,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11821,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "National Weather Service",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.weather.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "National Weather Service",
"url": "https://www.weather.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}