What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year? [ resolves 2026-12-01 (131D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 21 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristobal | 2026-12-01 | 61.0% | $428 | $4.4K | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…CRI | ||
| Edouard | 2026-12-01 | 19.0% | $17 | $1.0K | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…EDO | ||
| Dolly | 2026-12-01 | 18.0% | $125 | $1.5K | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…DOL | ||
| Gonzalo | 2026-12-01 | 11.0% | $60 | $577 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…GON | ||
| Fay | 2026-12-01 | 10.0% | $6 | $367 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…FAY | ||
| Hanna | 2026-12-01 | 8.0% | $29 | $348 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…HAN | ||
| Isaias | 2026-12-01 | 3.0% | — | $146 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…ISA | ||
| Nana | 2026-12-01 | 3.0% | — | $268 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…NAN | ||
| Josephine | 2026-12-01 | 2.0% | $7 | $123 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…JOS | ||
| Arthur | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | $253 | $898 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…ART | ||
| Bertha | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | $71 | $975 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…BER | ||
| Kyle | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | $0 | $44 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…KYL | ||
| Leah | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | $1 | $28 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…LEA | ||
| Marco | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | $3 | $62 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…MAR | ||
| Omar | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $87 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…OMA | ||
| Paulette | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $23 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…PAU | ||
| Rene | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $25 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…REN | ||
| Sally | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $24 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…SAL | ||
| Teddy | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $23 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…TED | ||
| Vicky | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $33 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…VIC | ||
| Wilfred | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $24 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…WIL |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | National Weather Service | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a storm named Arthur is the first storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market resolves Yes for the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then all markets resolve to No.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "National Weather Service" sources (2) · single authority
- National Weather Service venue-listed
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VWP9GBVJX7",
"slug": "kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl",
"question": "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"atlantic-hurricanes",
"weather-prediction",
"annual-naming",
"2026",
"seasonal-forecasting"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 21,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11038,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "National Weather Service",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.weather.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "National Weather Service",
"url": "https://www.weather.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}