Isaias leads the 2026 Atlantic season at 97%

Name: Isaias leads the 2026 Atlantic season at 97%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-07T15:02:49+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

97% · $13K 24h

record: CMSIG20261007VS04 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-VWP9GBVJX7 | published: 2026-10-07

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices Isaias as the first named Atlantic hurricane of 2026 at 97%, indicating the storm has already achieved or is on the verge of hurricane status.
44% of all-time volume hit in 24 hours as traders finalize positions ahead of imminent meteorological resolution.
Volume at near-certain odds reflects late confirming trades as NHC advisories track the storm's intensification in real time.
Resolves YES if Isaias is officially designated the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2026 season by NHC.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity kalshi_vol_24h: $13.5K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01ATL-ISA

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-isaias-be-the-first-named-hurricane-vol-13471/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-isaias-be-the-first-named-hurricane-vol-13471.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-isaias-be-the-first-named-hurricane-vol-13471")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261007VS04",
  "published_at": "2026-10-07T15:02:49+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-VWP9GBVJX7",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl",
  "event_question": "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Isaias as the first named Atlantic hurricane of 2026 at 97%, indicating the storm has already achieved or is on the verge of hurricane status.",
    "44% of all-time volume hit in 24 hours as traders finalize positions ahead of imminent meteorological resolution.",
    "Volume at near-certain odds reflects late confirming trades as NHC advisories track the storm's intensification in real time.",
    "Resolves YES if Isaias is officially designated the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2026 season by NHC."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 13471.45
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01ATL-ISA",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atl",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T15:02:49+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20261007VS04 published 2026-10-07T15:02:49+00:00 signature sha256-268c1df8278… ← underlying event all signals →