Isaias as 2026's first Atlantic hurricane is all but priced in
99% · $13K 24h
record: CMSIG20261008VS05 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-VWP9GBVJX7 | published: 2026-10-08
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Kalshi prices Isaias as the first named Atlantic hurricane of 2026 at 99%, leaving almost no uncertainty.
- 34% of all-time volume, $12.8K, arrived in 24 hours, likely confirming a storm already in progress or imminently named.
- Near-certainty pricing with fresh volume suggests the market is settling rather than discovering, final capital positioning at the finish line.
- Resolves once Isaias is officially classified as the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] volume_anomaly
liquidity kalshi_vol_24h: $12.8K
evaluation
The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.
- judge_engine
llm_judge_cm_signal_v1- judge_verdict
- wire_eligible
- judge_confidence
- 0.81 / 1.00
- prompt_template
volume_spike_v1github · auditable
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
external
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-isaias-be-the-first-named-hurricane-vol-12845/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-isaias-be-the-first-named-hurricane-vol-12845.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("will-isaias-be-the-first-named-hurricane-vol-12845") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG20261008VS05",
"published_at": "2026-10-08T07:49:04+00:00",
"detection": "volume_spike",
"category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-VWP9GBVJX7",
"target_event_slug": "kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl",
"event_question": "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?",
"bullets": [
"Kalshi prices Isaias as the first named Atlantic hurricane of 2026 at 99%, leaving almost no uncertainty.",
"34% of all-time volume, $12.8K, arrived in 24 hours, likely confirming a storm already in progress or imminently named.",
"Near-certainty pricing with fresh volume suggests the market is settling rather than discovering, final capital positioning at the finish line.",
"Resolves once Isaias is officially classified as the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "volume_anomaly",
"provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
"field_provenance": {
"volume_24h_usd": {
"tier": "direct",
"method": "kalshi_api"
},
"intensity": {
"tier": "derived",
"method": "arithmetic",
"inputs": [
"volume_24h_usd",
"volume_cumulative_usd"
]
}
},
"liquidity_context": {
"kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 12845.83
}
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
"judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
"judge_confidence": 0.81,
"prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01ATL-ISA",
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "ClearMarket market record: What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atl",
"url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl",
"retrieved_at": "2026-10-08T07:49:04+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "kalshi_api",
"news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1