Will the Democratic Party winner of the New Hampshire Senate primary be determined by the 2026 primary election? [ resolves 2026-09-08 (35D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 18 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Pappas | 2026-09-08 | 96.2% | $50 | $15K | C | 0xf78be5…6534 | ||
| Karishma Manzur | 2026-09-08 | 4.1% | $175 | $20K | C | 0x1cf96f…216e | ||
| Candidate A | 2026-09-08 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x836cae…12c9 | ||
| Candidate B | 2026-09-08 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2655a4…3b8f | ||
| Candidate C | 2026-09-08 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x28849b…a3c9 | ||
| Candidate D | 2026-09-08 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd61760…c26b | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-09-08 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe5a1d3…7463 | ||
| Candidate F | 2026-09-08 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x35818c…470c | ||
| Candidate G | 2026-09-08 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf8a7c9…25cb | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-09-08 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9e611e…8a38 | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-09-08 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xaa719f…c107 | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-09-08 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xdb7447…69a4 | ||
| Candidate K | 2026-09-08 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x47a071…2ada | ||
| Candidate L | 2026-09-08 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf42411…69ad | ||
| Candidate M | 2026-09-08 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xea8dfc…1a85 | ||
| Candidate N | 2026-09-08 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3a6650…8df1 | ||
| Candidate O | 2026-09-08 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2f01d9…5909 | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-09-08 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x91be63…4e3b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from New Hampshire.
If no 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
the New Hampshire Democratic party from rules text an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Pappas NH Democratic Senate nomination stays a strong bet 94% · $13K 24h
- Market prices 94%, traders see Pappas as the near-certain Democratic Senate nominee in New Hampshire.
- 24h volume of $12.7K is 27% of all-time handle, a meaningful but not exhaustive capital deployment.
- Fresh attention likely tied to primary filing deadlines or a rival's decision not to challenge.
- At 94%, residual 6% reflects tail risk of a late entrant or Pappas withdrawal before the primary.
- Manzur NH Senate nomination trades as a long shot at 6% 6% · $13K 24h
- 6% price signals the market sees Manzur as a heavy underdog in New Hampshire's Democratic Senate primary.
- Polymarket records $13K in 24h, 25% of all-time volume, a material liquidity event for a lower-profile race.
- Volume into a 6% candidate may reflect a speculative position ahead of a primary filing deadline or polling release.
- Resolves on the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary result.
- Manzur NH Senate bid holds at 7% as Pappas dominates 7% · $14K 24h
- 7% leaves a slim tail for Manzur to overtake Pappas as the New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee.
- 35% of all-time volume today, relative to contract size, the most concentrated daily share in the NH cluster.
- Likely driven by traders hedging or closing positions as the Pappas narrative tightens across venues.
- Resolves on New Hampshire Democratic primary certification.
- Pappas NH Democratic nomination steady at 93% on Polymarket 93% · $10K 24h
- 93% on Polymarket mirrors Kalshi's 94%, cross-venue convergence strengthens the Pappas nomination read.
- 31% of all-time Polymarket handle today, suggesting renewed but smaller-scale confirmation trading.
- Spread between venues is within rounding, no exploitable arb, just parallel conviction.
- Resolves on New Hampshire primary certification, same trigger as the Kalshi contract.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HY8R70V952",
"slug": "new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-winner",
"question": "Will the Democratic Party winner of the New Hampshire Senate primary be determined by the 2026 primary election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"2026",
"primary",
"new-hampshire",
"senate"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 18,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 34267,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 48,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the New Hampshire Democratic party",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}