Manzur NH Senate bid holds at 7% as Pappas dominates

Name: Manzur NH Senate bid holds at 7% as Pappas dominates
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-28T19:52:39+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

7% · $14K 24h

record: CMSIG20260828VS04 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-HY8R70V952 | published: 2026-08-28

4-bullet brief | narrative

7% leaves a slim tail for Manzur to overtake Pappas as the New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee.
35% of all-time volume today, relative to contract size, the most concentrated daily share in the NH cluster.
Likely driven by traders hedging or closing positions as the Pappas narrative tightens across venues.
Resolves on New Hampshire Democratic primary certification.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $13.8K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-winner/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x1cf96ff28b0fa76e23f12a0cf299fc3bced8b26e0addfc1ef11fb58347c0216e

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-karishma-manzur-be-the-democratic-n-vol-13841/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-karishma-manzur-be-the-democratic-n-vol-13841.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-karishma-manzur-be-the-democratic-n-vol-13841")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260828VS04",
  "published_at": "2026-08-28T19:52:39+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HY8R70V952",
  "target_event_slug": "new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the Democratic Party winner of the New Hampshire Senate primary be determined by the 2026 primary election?",
  "bullets": [
    "7% leaves a slim tail for Manzur to overtake Pappas as the New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee.",
    "35% of all-time volume today, relative to contract size, the most concentrated daily share in the NH cluster.",
    "Likely driven by traders hedging or closing positions as the Pappas narrative tightens across venues.",
    "Resolves on New Hampshire Democratic primary certification."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 13841.773855
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-winner/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Democratic Party winner of the New Hampshire S",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-28T19:52:39+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260828VS04 published 2026-08-28T19:52:39+00:00 signature sha256-030dc75ced9… ← underlying event all signals →