Pappas NH Democratic nomination steady at 93% on Polymarket

Name: Pappas NH Democratic nomination steady at 93% on Polymarket
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-28T19:52:39+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

93% · $10K 24h

record: CMSIG20260828VS05 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-HY8R70V952 | published: 2026-08-28

4-bullet brief | narrative

93% on Polymarket mirrors Kalshi's 94%, cross-venue convergence strengthens the Pappas nomination read.
31% of all-time Polymarket handle today, suggesting renewed but smaller-scale confirmation trading.
Spread between venues is within rounding, no exploitable arb, just parallel conviction.
Resolves on New Hampshire primary certification, same trigger as the Kalshi contract.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $10.0K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-winner/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xf78be595172a9db8c6323e1927aa44b2fa2d52805d97bf4a9664593b42326534

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-chris-pappas-be-the-democratic-nomi-vol-10047/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-chris-pappas-be-the-democratic-nomi-vol-10047.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-chris-pappas-be-the-democratic-nomi-vol-10047")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260828VS05",
  "published_at": "2026-08-28T19:52:39+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HY8R70V952",
  "target_event_slug": "new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the Democratic Party winner of the New Hampshire Senate primary be determined by the 2026 primary election?",
  "bullets": [
    "93% on Polymarket mirrors Kalshi's 94%, cross-venue convergence strengthens the Pappas nomination read.",
    "31% of all-time Polymarket handle today, suggesting renewed but smaller-scale confirmation trading.",
    "Spread between venues is within rounding, no exploitable arb, just parallel conviction.",
    "Resolves on New Hampshire primary certification, same trigger as the Kalshi contract."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 10047.440818000001
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-winner/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Democratic Party winner of the New Hampshire S",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-28T19:52:39+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260828VS05 published 2026-08-28T19:52:39+00:00 signature sha256-62b696c8b40… ← underlying event all signals →