Putin leaving the Russian presidency by end of 2026 stays a long shot

Name: Putin leaving the Russian presidency by end of 2026 stays a long shot
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 4%

record: CMSIG2026092007 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-5WJSMVBVS7 | published: 2026-09-20

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices only a 4% chance Vladimir Putin is no longer President of Russia by end of 2026.
Ukraine's largest-ever drone attack on Moscow is a significant escalation, yet the Polymarket contract shows the market treating Putin's removal as a deep tail event.
The 4% pricing implies the attack, while symbolically significant, is not being read as a near-term threat to Russian political stability.
Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the contract would resolve YES on any scenario in which Putin ceases to hold the presidency, including death, resignation, or removal.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Ukraine launched over 1,000 drones at Russia in what Moscow's mayor described as the largest-ever attack, killing two people and striking a Moscow oil refinery.exa_search → Al Jazeera Staff · as_of 2026-09-20T12:50:04+00:00
publisher: Al Jazeera Staff
published_at: 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/20/mass-ukrainian-drone-attack-on-moscow-kills-two-russia-says

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket contract at 4% remains unmoved in headline terms by the drone escalation; no intraday price history is available to assess any shift from this level.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/putin-out-before-2027/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x6bd56627aa21311850825edb27e53434a0e17a4f782be0086bc07f71eee00d0d

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/putin-out-as-russia-president-by-2026-polymarket-4-2026-09-20/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/putin-out-as-russia-president-by-2026-polymarket-4-2026-09-20.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("putin-out-as-russia-president-by-2026-polymarket-4-2026-09-20")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092007",
  "published_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-5WJSMVBVS7",
  "target_event_slug": "putin-out-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Vladimir Putin no longer be President of Russia by the end of 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only a 4% chance Vladimir Putin is no longer President of Russia by end of 2026.",
    "Ukraine's largest-ever drone attack on Moscow is a significant escalation, yet the Polymarket contract shows the market treating Putin's removal as a deep tail event.",
    "The 4% pricing implies the attack, while symbolically significant, is not being read as a near-term threat to Russian political stability.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the contract would resolve YES on any scenario in which Putin ceases to hold the presidency, including death, resignation, or removal."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Al Jazeera Staff",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/20/mass-ukrainian-drone-attack-on-moscow-kills-two-russia-says",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-20T12:50:04+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Ukraine launched over 1,000 drones at Russia in what Moscow's mayor described as the largest-ever attack, killing two people and striking a Moscow oil refinery.",
      "publisher": "Al Jazeera Staff",
      "published_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/20/mass-ukrainian-drone-attack-on-moscow-kills-two-russia-says"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract at 4% remains unmoved in headline terms by the drone escalation; no intraday price history is available to assess any shift from this level."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/putin-out-before-2027/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Al Jazeera Staff: Mass Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow kills two, Russia says | Drone S",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/20/mass-ukrainian-drone-attack-on-moscow-kills-two-russia-says",
      "published_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-20T12:50:04+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026092007 published 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-fbea8047cdc… ← underlying event all signals →