Putin leaving the Russian presidency by year-end stays near zero

Name: Putin leaving the Russian presidency by year-end stays near zero
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 3%

record: CMSIG2026100708 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-5WJSMVBVS7 | published: 2026-10-07

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices only 3% on Vladimir Putin no longer serving as Russian president by end of 2026, resolving via UMA oracle.
A massive birthday-timed attack on Ukraine signals Putin's continued grip on power; Polymarket is fully consistent with that read at 3%.
The Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-355Q75KD17) pricing 6% on Zelensky leaving the Ukrainian presidency by end-2026 shows markets see slightly more leadership risk on the Ukrainian side.
Resolves via UMA oracle determination of whether Putin formally ceases to hold the Russian presidency before January 1, 2027.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone assault across Ukraine on Vladimir Putin's 74th birthday, killing at least 22 people.exa_search → RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service, Current Time · as_of 2026-10-07T15:02:04+00:00
publisher: RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service, Current Time
published_at: 2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-zelenskyy-putin-war/33871985.html

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket at 3% treats Putin's removal as a near-impossibility in 2026; the birthday strikes reinforce rather than challenge that pricing.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/putin-out-before-2027/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x6bd56627aa21311850825edb27e53434a0e17a4f782be0086bc07f71eee00d0d

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/putin-out-as-russia-president-by-end-2026-polymarket-3-2026-10-07/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/putin-out-as-russia-president-by-end-2026-polymarket-3-2026-10-07.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("putin-out-as-russia-president-by-end-2026-polymarket-3-2026-10-07")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100708",
  "published_at": "2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-5WJSMVBVS7",
  "target_event_slug": "putin-out-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Vladimir Putin no longer be President of Russia by the end of 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 3% on Vladimir Putin no longer serving as Russian president by end of 2026, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "A massive birthday-timed attack on Ukraine signals Putin's continued grip on power; Polymarket is fully consistent with that read at 3%.",
    "The Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-355Q75KD17) pricing 6% on Zelensky leaving the Ukrainian presidency by end-2026 shows markets see slightly more leadership risk on the Ukrainian side.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle determination of whether Putin formally ceases to hold the Russian presidency before January 1, 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service, Current Time",
          "source_url": "https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-zelenskyy-putin-war/33871985.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T15:02:04+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone assault across Ukraine on Vladimir Putin's 74th birthday, killing at least 22 people.",
      "publisher": "RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service, Current Time",
      "published_at": "2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-zelenskyy-putin-war/33871985.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 3% treats Putin's removal as a near-impossibility in 2026; the birthday strikes reinforce rather than challenge that pricing."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/putin-out-before-2027/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service, Current Time: Russia's Deadly Attacks Damage Homes Across Ukraine On Putin's Birthda",
      "url": "https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-zelenskyy-putin-war/33871985.html",
      "published_at": "2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T15:02:04+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026100708 published 2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-5ba82eafcd1… ← underlying event all signals →