Iranian regime survival after US strikes near full pricing

Name: Iranian regime survival after US strikes near full pricing
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-26T23:11:35.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 100%

record: CMSIG2026062604 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-XYC4HDKBW3 | published: 2026-06-26

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices Iranian regime survival at 100% despite the US-Iran military exchange, reflecting no credible near-term collapse scenario.
The tit-for-tat strike exchange, with Iran targeting US military positions in response, is consistent with escalation remaining below regime-threatening intensity.
Companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-SM21RS13V3) puts only 3% on Iran becoming a democracy by end of 2026, reinforcing the regime-continuity consensus.
Resolves via Polymarket's uma_oracle; regime survival means the Islamic Republic government remains in power, not absence of military strikes.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: The US struck Iran in response to an alleged Iranian attack on a commercial vessel; Iran's IRGC said it targeted US military positions in the region in response.exa_search → CGTN · as_of 2026-06-27T01:35:43+00:00
publisher: CGTN
published_at: 2026-06-26T23:11:35.000Z
source_url: https://news.cgtn.com/news/2026-06-27/news-1Oj6GyJY1oY/p.html

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket's 100% pricing signals the prediction market treats this exchange as a contained military episode, not an existential threat to the regime.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xefc69f5f48827e331957acbcc2339eb3b15e27e32453b8e6f29b5de67474c986

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iranian-regime-survives-us-strikes-polymarket-100-2026-06-26/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iranian-regime-survives-us-strikes-polymarket-100-2026-06-26.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("iranian-regime-survives-us-strikes-polymarket-100-2026-06-26")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062604",
  "published_at": "2026-06-26T23:11:35.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-XYC4HDKBW3",
  "target_event_slug": "will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741",
  "event_question": "Will the Iranian regime survive any U.S. military strikes?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Iranian regime survival at 100% despite the US-Iran military exchange, reflecting no credible near-term collapse scenario.",
    "The tit-for-tat strike exchange, with Iran targeting US military positions in response, is consistent with escalation remaining below regime-threatening intensity.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-SM21RS13V3) puts only 3% on Iran becoming a democracy by end of 2026, reinforcing the regime-continuity consensus.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's uma_oracle; regime survival means the Islamic Republic government remains in power, not absence of military strikes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "CGTN",
          "source_url": "https://news.cgtn.com/news/2026-06-27/news-1Oj6GyJY1oY/p.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T01:35:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US struck Iran in response to an alleged Iranian attack on a commercial vessel; Iran's IRGC said it targeted US military positions in the region in response.",
      "publisher": "CGTN",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T23:11:35.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://news.cgtn.com/news/2026-06-27/news-1Oj6GyJY1oY/p.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 100% pricing signals the prediction market treats this exchange as a contained military episode, not an existential threat to the regime."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "CGTN: US strikes Iran over alleged attack on commercial vessel; Iran says it",
      "url": "https://news.cgtn.com/news/2026-06-27/news-1Oj6GyJY1oY/p.html",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T23:11:35.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T01:35:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026062604 published 2026-06-26T23:11:35.000Z signature sha256-ec13fff8ae0… ← underlying event all signals →