Two-year Treasury yield nears full pricing above 4.7 percent

Name: Two-year Treasury yield nears full pricing above 4.7 percent
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026092803 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-FQWTB38T69 | published: 2026-09-28

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder prices 99% that the 2-year Treasury par yield averaged above 4.70% in Q3 2026, with all rungs from 3.20% to 4.70% also at 99%.
The full-ladder consensus is consistent with the news narrative of stubbornly elevated yields; the market has already priced in the higher-for-longer regime.
A companion Kalshi ladder puts only 2% odds on the 10-year yield dipping below 1% before 2027, confirming broad market alignment on elevated rates.
Resolution is via the Federal Reserve's published H.15 par yield data for Q3 2026 average; no meaningful uncertainty remains given the 99% read across all strikes.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Bond market commentary highlights a bias for higher 10-year Treasury yields, with veteran fixed-income managers preferring yields above 5% for real returns.exa_search → investing.com · as_of 2026-09-29T07:47:25+00:00
publisher: investing.com
published_at: 2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.investing.com/analysis/key-economic-data-this-week-and-the-treasury-10year-yield-bias-still-higher-200688463

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder shows unanimous above-consensus pricing across all 2Y yield strikes from 3.20% to 4.70% for Q3 2026.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxustyld-26sep30/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T4.70

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2y-ust-yield-above-4-70-for-q3-2026-kalshi-99-2026-09-28/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2y-ust-yield-above-4-70-for-q3-2026-kalshi-99-2026-09-28.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("2y-ust-yield-above-4-70-for-q3-2026-kalshi-99-2026-09-28")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092803",
  "published_at": "2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FQWTB38T69",
  "target_event_slug": "kxustyld-26sep30",
  "event_question": "UST par yield curve 2Y, Q3 2026",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 99% that the 2-year Treasury par yield averaged above 4.70% in Q3 2026, with all rungs from 3.20% to 4.70% also at 99%.",
    "The full-ladder consensus is consistent with the news narrative of stubbornly elevated yields; the market has already priced in the higher-for-longer regime.",
    "A companion Kalshi ladder puts only 2% odds on the 10-year yield dipping below 1% before 2027, confirming broad market alignment on elevated rates.",
    "Resolution is via the Federal Reserve's published H.15 par yield data for Q3 2026 average; no meaningful uncertainty remains given the 99% read across all strikes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "investing.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/analysis/key-economic-data-this-week-and-the-treasury-10year-yield-bias-still-higher-200688463",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-29T07:47:25+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bond market commentary highlights a bias for higher 10-year Treasury yields, with veteran fixed-income managers preferring yields above 5% for real returns.",
      "publisher": "investing.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/analysis/key-economic-data-this-week-and-the-treasury-10year-yield-bias-still-higher-200688463"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder shows unanimous above-consensus pricing across all 2Y yield strikes from 3.20% to 4.70% for Q3 2026."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxustyld-26sep30/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T4.70",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "investing.com: Key Economic Data This Week and the Treasury 10-Year Yield Bias Still",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/analysis/key-economic-data-this-week-and-the-treasury-10year-yield-bias-still-higher-200688463",
      "published_at": "2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-29T07:47:25+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026092803 published 2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-6be00e98f52… ← underlying event all signals →