Any Hormuz transit by June 30 consensus wavers at long-shot

Name: Any Hormuz transit by June 30 consensus wavers at long-shot
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-25T21:47:54.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 28%

record: CMSIG2026062506 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-VB1YHPRLZ3 | published: 2026-06-25

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices only 28% on any ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, consistent with the UN halting its evacuation plan after the attack.
The UN suspension of evacuation operations directly reinforces the below-50% pricing on near-term transit resumption.
The June 30 unrestricted-shipping contract at 31% and this any-transit contract at 28% are closely clustered, suggesting the market sees even minimal transit as uncertain.
Resolves via portwatch.imf.org traffic data; the IMF's port-watch feed is the named settlement source, giving the contract an objective, delay-resistant resolution path.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: The UN paused its evacuation of trapped mariners in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran struck a commercial vessel, halting corridor-reopening efforts.exa_search → abc.net.au · as_of 2026-06-26T10:48:01+00:00
publisher: abc.net.au
published_at: 2026-06-25T21:47:54.000Z
source_url: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-26/hormuz-strait-ship-attack-prompts-un-to-pause-evacuation/106843940

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket's 28% on any transit by June 30 is directionally aligned with the UN pause, treating corridor reopening as a low-probability event this month.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xc38b96e6fb12fc68d003ff326f2a11eb3c8f04c2fce7fcfc9d62f5e18131817c

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/any-hormuz-ship-transit-by-june-30-polymarket-28-2026-06-25/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/any-hormuz-ship-transit-by-june-30-polymarket-28-2026-06-25.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("any-hormuz-ship-transit-by-june-30-polymarket-28-2026-06-25")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062506",
  "published_at": "2026-06-25T21:47:54.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-VB1YHPRLZ3",
  "target_event_slug": "will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will any ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 28% on any ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, consistent with the UN halting its evacuation plan after the attack.",
    "The UN suspension of evacuation operations directly reinforces the below-50% pricing on near-term transit resumption.",
    "The June 30 unrestricted-shipping contract at 31% and this any-transit contract at 28% are closely clustered, suggesting the market sees even minimal transit as uncertain.",
    "Resolves via portwatch.imf.org traffic data; the IMF's port-watch feed is the named settlement source, giving the contract an objective, delay-resistant resolution path."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "abc.net.au",
          "source_url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-26/hormuz-strait-ship-attack-prompts-un-to-pause-evacuation/106843940",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-26T10:48:01+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The UN paused its evacuation of trapped mariners in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran struck a commercial vessel, halting corridor-reopening efforts.",
      "publisher": "abc.net.au",
      "published_at": "2026-06-25T21:47:54.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-26/hormuz-strait-ship-attack-prompts-un-to-pause-evacuation/106843940"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 28% on any transit by June 30 is directionally aligned with the UN pause, treating corridor reopening as a low-probability event this month."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "abc.net.au: UN pauses Strait of Hormuz evacuation after ship reports attack - ABC",
      "url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-26/hormuz-strait-ship-attack-prompts-un-to-pause-evacuation/106843940",
      "published_at": "2026-06-25T21:47:54.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-26T10:48:01+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026062506 published 2026-06-25T21:47:54.000Z signature sha256-2440f730085… ← underlying event all signals →