Applied Intuition IPO claim decouples on the major prediction desks

Name: Applied Intuition IPO claim decouples on the major prediction desks
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-29T01:47:46+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 23% vs Kalshi 10%

record: CMSIG20260629DV01 | category: cross-venue-divergence | target: CM-EVT-858NYLKF97 | published: 2026-06-29

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket marks Applied Intuition IPO at 23%, Kalshi at 10%, a 13pp gap before year-end 2026.
Polymarket is the higher venue with roughly 100x Kalshi's cumulative volume, indicating far greater conviction.
Kalshi's lower price may reflect conservative interpretation of 'IPO' or limited sophisticated flow on the book.
Resolves YES on a completed public listing of Applied Intuition before Jan 1, 2027.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] cross_venue_spread

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $40 kalshi_vol_24h: $0

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.84 / 1.00
prompt_template: cross_venue_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxipo-26/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x76d92e422d9a4c1d9ceeea7445fa709df9df03e45b6372623abec7254caee3a9
venue_b: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXIPO-26-AINTUITION

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/applied-intuition-ipo-k10-p22/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/applied-intuition-ipo-k10-p22.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("applied-intuition-ipo-k10-p22")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260629DV01",
  "published_at": "2026-06-29T01:47:46+00:00",
  "detection": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-858NYLKF97",
  "target_event_slug": "kxipo-26",
  "event_question": "Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket marks Applied Intuition IPO at 23%, Kalshi at 10%, a 13pp gap before year-end 2026.",
    "Polymarket is the higher venue with roughly 100x Kalshi's cumulative volume, indicating far greater conviction.",
    "Kalshi's lower price may reflect conservative interpretation of 'IPO' or limited sophisticated flow on the book.",
    "Resolves YES on a completed public listing of Applied Intuition before Jan 1, 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-52E2DEB126); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 40.4,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 0
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.84,
    "prompt_template": "cross_venue_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxipo-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXIPO-26-AINTUITION",
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/applied-intuition-ipo-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T01:47:46+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260629DV01 published 2026-06-29T01:47:46+00:00 signature sha256-b121c4fa31b… ← underlying event all signals →