Arc token-before-2027 odds run higher on one venue

Name: Arc token-before-2027 odds run higher on one venue
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-06T07:49:28+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 11% vs Kalshi 17%

record: CMSIG20261006DV00 | category: cross-venue-divergence | target: CM-EVT-K7DR5FCFM0 | published: 2026-10-06

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices the Arc token launch at 17%, Polymarket at 11%, a 6pp gap with under three months to resolution.
Kalshi is the higher side; Polymarket carries the dominant liquidity at roughly 53x Kalshi's cumulative volume.
Thin Kalshi liquidity likely amplifies the spread, Polymarket's deeper pool is the more credible benchmark here.
Resolves YES if Arc publicly launches a token before Jan 1, 2027; no ambiguity window given the hard date.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] cross_venue_spread

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $541 kalshi_vol_24h: $33

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.84 / 1.00
prompt_template: cross_venue_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxtokenlaunch-27jan01/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x0a8d89321f01639ec17b6bcf1ef0b6c15137b1934605f8bffeb50b2f291756d4
venue_b: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOKENLAUNCH-27JAN01-ARC

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/arc-token-event-k17-p11/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/arc-token-event-k17-p11.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("arc-token-event-k17-p11")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261006DV00",
  "published_at": "2026-10-06T07:49:28+00:00",
  "detection": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-K7DR5FCFM0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxtokenlaunch-27jan01",
  "event_question": "Will Arc launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the Arc token launch at 17%, Polymarket at 11%, a 6pp gap with under three months to resolution.",
    "Kalshi is the higher side; Polymarket carries the dominant liquidity at roughly 53x Kalshi's cumulative volume.",
    "Thin Kalshi liquidity likely amplifies the spread, Polymarket's deeper pool is the more credible benchmark here.",
    "Resolves YES if Arc publicly launches a token before Jan 1, 2027; no ambiguity window given the hard date."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-F36B8880EB); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 541,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 32.53
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.84,
    "prompt_template": "cross_venue_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxtokenlaunch-27jan01/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOKENLAUNCH-27JAN01-ARC",
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: Will Arc launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/arc-token-event-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T07:49:28+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20261006DV00 published 2026-10-06T07:49:28+00:00 signature sha256-fb623bba0b1… ← underlying event all signals →