Bitcoin above $100K by year-end stays below 25 percent odds

Name: Bitcoin above $100K by year-end stays below 25 percent odds
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-15T04:50:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026101508 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9 | published: 2026-10-15

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder prices Bitcoin above $100K by December 31 at 26%, with the $110K tier collapsing to 10% and higher strikes in low single digits.
The hot CPI print and surge in rate hike expectations are consistent with current pricing showing Bitcoin well under the $100K threshold.
The companion Kalshi contract on a Bitcoin minimum price by January 1, 2027 (CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9) sits at 5%, suggesting material downside is also priced.
From spot near $81K, a 23%-plus rally by December 31 is needed to breach $100K; the ladder implies that is a minority outcome at current macro conditions.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Bitcoin fell toward $80,000 as hotter-than-expected September CPI data spurred rate hike bets, triggering nearly $1 billion in crypto liquidations.exa_search → theblock.co · as_of 2026-10-15T13:02:56+00:00
publisher: theblock.co
published_at: 2026-10-15T04:50:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.theblock.co/newsletters/the-daily/2026-10-15-the-daily-coinbase-outlines-priorities-for-bitcoins-post-quantum-migration-and-more-418619

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder resolves via CF Benchmarks; the distribution from $100K to $200K collapses rapidly, showing end-of-year upside scenarios are heavily discounted.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxbtcmaxy-26dec31/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBTCMAXY-26DEC31-99999.99

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-kalshi-ladder-26-2026-10-15/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-kalshi-ladder-26-2026-10-15.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-kalshi-ladder-26-2026-10-15")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101508",
  "published_at": "2026-10-15T04:50:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcmaxy-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin end-of-year price level",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices Bitcoin above $100K by December 31 at 26%, with the $110K tier collapsing to 10% and higher strikes in low single digits.",
    "The hot CPI print and surge in rate hike expectations are consistent with current pricing showing Bitcoin well under the $100K threshold.",
    "The companion Kalshi contract on a Bitcoin minimum price by January 1, 2027 (CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9) sits at 5%, suggesting material downside is also priced.",
    "From spot near $81K, a 23%-plus rally by December 31 is needed to breach $100K; the ladder implies that is a minority outcome at current macro conditions."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "theblock.co",
          "source_url": "https://www.theblock.co/newsletters/the-daily/2026-10-15-the-daily-coinbase-outlines-priorities-for-bitcoins-post-quantum-migration-and-more-418619",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-15T13:02:56+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin fell toward $80,000 as hotter-than-expected September CPI data spurred rate hike bets, triggering nearly $1 billion in crypto liquidations.",
      "publisher": "theblock.co",
      "published_at": "2026-10-15T04:50:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.theblock.co/newsletters/the-daily/2026-10-15-the-daily-coinbase-outlines-priorities-for-bitcoins-post-quantum-migration-and-more-418619"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via CF Benchmarks; the distribution from $100K to $200K collapses rapidly, showing end-of-year upside scenarios are heavily discounted."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxbtcmaxy-26dec31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBTCMAXY-26DEC31-99999.99",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "theblock.co: The Daily: Coinbase outlines priorities for Bitcoin's post-quantum mig",
      "url": "https://www.theblock.co/newsletters/the-daily/2026-10-15-the-daily-coinbase-outlines-priorities-for-bitcoins-post-quantum-migration-and-more-418619",
      "published_at": "2026-10-15T04:50:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-15T13:02:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026101508 published 2026-10-15T04:50:00.000Z signature sha256-579bc3dc777… ← underlying event all signals →