Blue wave in 2026 stays heavily favored across venues

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101104",
  "published_at": "2026-10-11T04:26:50.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4N4F192YB2",
  "target_event_slug": "blue-wave-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue wave in 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket and Kalshi both price a 2026 blue wave at 86%, showing rare cross-venue alignment and strong consensus behind the Democratic scenario.",
    "Media framing of the midterms as a Trump referendum aligns directly with both contracts, and the market is not fading the narrative at current odds.",
    "A separate Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-GJT54LW964) puts only 44% on a blue tsunami, suggesting the market draws a firm line between a wave and a historic sweep.",
    "Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2) resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics; Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle, identical pricing across venues reduces venue-specific noise."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Lauren Day, Bradley McLennan",
          "source_url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-11/republican-states-like-ohio-in-play-us-midterms/107250786",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-11T07:48:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "ABC News and analysts describe the 2026 midterms as a referendum on Trump that could produce a Democratic blue wave.",
      "publisher": "Lauren Day, Bradley McLennan",
      "published_at": "2026-10-11T04:26:50.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-11/republican-states-like-ohio-in-play-us-midterms/107250786"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Cross-venue pricing at 86% on both Kalshi and Polymarket reflects broad consensus; the blue-tsunami spread at 44% sets a meaningful upper bound on Democratic expectations."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/blue-wave-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Lauren Day, Bradley McLennan: Midterms a 'referendum on Trump' that could bring a 'blue wave' of Dem",
      "url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-11/republican-states-like-ohio-in-play-us-midterms/107250786",
      "published_at": "2026-10-11T04:26:50.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-11T07:48:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}