Clarity Act Senate yea vote count stays below 50 seats

Name: Clarity Act Senate yea vote count stays below 50 seats
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-11T12:06:42.685Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026081106 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-CSYS5KPXK6 | published: 2026-08-11

4-bullet brief | narrative

The prediction market ladder implies fewer than 50 Senate yea votes on the CLARITY Act, with the 50-vote rung at only 42% and all higher rungs well below that.
Thune setting a September 15 procedural vote is a meaningful step forward, but the market prices the bill falling short of a filibuster-proof majority.
The 42% at 50 votes and 34% at 55 votes suggests real doubt about reaching 60 votes needed to advance, consistent with ongoing bipartisan friction.
Resolves based on the official Senate vote tally; the procedural cloture vote on September 15 may itself serve as an early resolution trigger.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Senate Majority Leader John Thune scheduled a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act for September 15, marking the bill's first formal Senate action.exa_search → TradingKey · as_of 2026-08-12T09:07:43+00:00
publisher: TradingKey
published_at: 2026-08-11T12:06:42.685Z
source_url: https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/cryptocurrencies/btc/262095914-crypto-clarity-act-coinbase-bitcoin-btc-strategy-mstr-sec-cftc-tradingkey

[02] pm_response

interp: This ladder carries priced data; the distribution is centered below the 50-vote threshold, suggesting passage is not the market's base case.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxvoteclarity-26may16/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXVOTECLARITY-26MAY16-T50

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-senate-yeas-implied-below-50-prediction-market-2026-08-11/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-senate-yeas-implied-below-50-prediction-market-2026-08-11.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("clarity-act-senate-yeas-implied-below-50-prediction-market-2026-08-11")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081106",
  "published_at": "2026-08-11T12:06:42.685Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-CSYS5KPXK6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxvoteclarity-26may16",
  "event_question": "Senate yea votes on crypto market structure bill",
  "bullets": [
    "The prediction market ladder implies fewer than 50 Senate yea votes on the CLARITY Act, with the 50-vote rung at only 42% and all higher rungs well below that.",
    "Thune setting a September 15 procedural vote is a meaningful step forward, but the market prices the bill falling short of a filibuster-proof majority.",
    "The 42% at 50 votes and 34% at 55 votes suggests real doubt about reaching 60 votes needed to advance, consistent with ongoing bipartisan friction.",
    "Resolves based on the official Senate vote tally; the procedural cloture vote on September 15 may itself serve as an early resolution trigger."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "TradingKey",
          "source_url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/cryptocurrencies/btc/262095914-crypto-clarity-act-coinbase-bitcoin-btc-strategy-mstr-sec-cftc-tradingkey",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-12T09:07:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Senate Majority Leader John Thune scheduled a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act for September 15, marking the bill's first formal Senate action.",
      "publisher": "TradingKey",
      "published_at": "2026-08-11T12:06:42.685Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/cryptocurrencies/btc/262095914-crypto-clarity-act-coinbase-bitcoin-btc-strategy-mstr-sec-cftc-tradingkey"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "This ladder carries priced data; the distribution is centered below the 50-vote threshold, suggesting passage is not the market's base case."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxvoteclarity-26may16/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXVOTECLARITY-26MAY16-T50",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "TradingKey: Clarity Act Sees Major Breakthrough as Senate Sets First Procedural Vo",
      "url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/cryptocurrencies/btc/262095914-crypto-clarity-act-coinbase-bitcoin-btc-strategy-mstr-sec-cftc-tradingkey",
      "published_at": "2026-08-11T12:06:42.685Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-12T09:07:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026081106 published 2026-08-11T12:06:42.685Z signature sha256-aea8e29fb5f… ← underlying event all signals →