Clarity Act signing by year-end anchors at a coin flip

Name: Clarity Act signing by year-end anchors at a coin flip
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-10T19:23:55.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 48%

record: CMSIG2026061008 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744 | published: 2026-06-10

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices the Clarity Act being signed into law by end of 2026 at 48%, essentially a coin flip despite heavy industry lobbying.
The coalition push signals urgency from the industry, but the market's near-even split reflects real legislative uncertainty in the Senate.
Senator Cynthia Lummis's parallel warning that failure means waiting until 2030 adds context to why the industry is pressing hard now.
Resolves via congress.gov; the bill must be signed into law, not merely pass one chamber, by December 31, 2026.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: More than 200 digital asset firms urged Senate leaders to bring the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act to a floor vote.exa_search → Joseph Morton · as_of 2026-06-13T10:25:37+00:00
publisher: Joseph Morton
published_at: 2026-06-10T19:23:55.000Z
source_url: https://mugglehead.com/crypto-industry-coalition-pushes-senate-to-advance-clarity-act/

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket's 48% is consistent with genuine legislative uncertainty; industry pressure alone has not moved the contract to a clear majority.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x9cb23d04b2ded06147482076688b69b487a8d982c63ebdda2ab3678cf27cf390

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-by-end-of-2026-polymarket-48-2026-06-10/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-by-end-of-2026-polymarket-48-2026-06-10.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("clarity-act-signed-by-end-of-2026-polymarket-48-2026-06-10")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061008",
  "published_at": "2026-06-10T19:23:55.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744",
  "target_event_slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Clarity Act be signed into law by the end of 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the Clarity Act being signed into law by end of 2026 at 48%, essentially a coin flip despite heavy industry lobbying.",
    "The coalition push signals urgency from the industry, but the market's near-even split reflects real legislative uncertainty in the Senate.",
    "Senator Cynthia Lummis's parallel warning that failure means waiting until 2030 adds context to why the industry is pressing hard now.",
    "Resolves via congress.gov; the bill must be signed into law, not merely pass one chamber, by December 31, 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Joseph Morton",
          "source_url": "https://mugglehead.com/crypto-industry-coalition-pushes-senate-to-advance-clarity-act/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-13T10:25:37+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "More than 200 digital asset firms urged Senate leaders to bring the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act to a floor vote.",
      "publisher": "Joseph Morton",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T19:23:55.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://mugglehead.com/crypto-industry-coalition-pushes-senate-to-advance-clarity-act/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 48% is consistent with genuine legislative uncertainty; industry pressure alone has not moved the contract to a clear majority."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Joseph Morton: Crypto industry coalition pushes Senate to advance Clarity Act - Muggl",
      "url": "https://mugglehead.com/crypto-industry-coalition-pushes-senate-to-advance-clarity-act/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T19:23:55.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-13T10:25:37+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026061008 published 2026-06-10T19:23:55.000Z signature sha256-c9c31720f7f… ← underlying event all signals →