Clarity Act signed into law this year stays a long shot

Name: Clarity Act signed into law this year stays a long shot
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-15T21:31:48.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 8%

record: CMSIG2026091507 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744 | published: 2026-09-15

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Polymarket prediction market prices the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026 at just 8%.
Senate collapse of the crypto bill is consistent with Polymarket's low probability, with the House Bitcoin reserve bill passage offering an alternative but narrower crypto legislative path.
A Kalshi ladder on Senate Yea votes for a crypto market structure bill implies a market-implied outcome below 50 votes, corroborating the Senate's evident resistance.
Resolution: Polymarket settles via its UMA oracle, requiring verifiable signing by the President.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: The US Senate crypto regulatory bill collapsed, dealing a major blow to efforts to establish a first-of-its-kind digital asset framework.exa_search → AFP and Reuters · as_of 2026-09-18T12:38:42+00:00
publisher: AFP and Reuters
published_at: 2026-09-15T21:31:48.000Z
source_url: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/9/15/us-senate-crypto-bill-collapses-in-blow-to-industry

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket at 8% accurately anticipated the Senate headwinds, with the bill's collapse now making 2026 enactment a remote scenario.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x9cb23d04b2ded06147482076688b69b487a8d982c63ebdda2ab3678cf27cf390

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-in-2026-polymarket-8-2026-09-15/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-in-2026-polymarket-8-2026-09-15.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("clarity-act-signed-in-2026-polymarket-8-2026-09-15")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091507",
  "published_at": "2026-09-15T21:31:48.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744",
  "target_event_slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) be signed into law by 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket prediction market prices the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026 at just 8%.",
    "Senate collapse of the crypto bill is consistent with Polymarket's low probability, with the House Bitcoin reserve bill passage offering an alternative but narrower crypto legislative path.",
    "A Kalshi ladder on Senate Yea votes for a crypto market structure bill implies a market-implied outcome below 50 votes, corroborating the Senate's evident resistance.",
    "Resolution: Polymarket settles via its UMA oracle, requiring verifiable signing by the President."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "AFP  and  Reuters",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/9/15/us-senate-crypto-bill-collapses-in-blow-to-industry",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-18T12:38:42+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US Senate crypto regulatory bill collapsed, dealing a major blow to efforts to establish a first-of-its-kind digital asset framework.",
      "publisher": "AFP  and  Reuters",
      "published_at": "2026-09-15T21:31:48.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/9/15/us-senate-crypto-bill-collapses-in-blow-to-industry"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 8% accurately anticipated the Senate headwinds, with the bill's collapse now making 2026 enactment a remote scenario."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "AFP  and  Reuters: US Senate crypto bill collapses in blow to industry | Crypto News | Al",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/9/15/us-senate-crypto-bill-collapses-in-blow-to-industry",
      "published_at": "2026-09-15T21:31:48.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-18T12:38:42+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026091507 published 2026-09-15T21:31:48.000Z signature sha256-6f5ba35c8c2… ← underlying event all signals →