Clarity Act signed into law by 2026 remains a long shot

Name: Clarity Act signed into law by 2026 remains a long shot
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 8%

record: CMSIG2026091908 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744 | published: 2026-09-19

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket puts 8% odds on the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026.
The Senate failure to advance the bill is consistent with this near-floor pricing; the market had already discounted legislative success before the setback.
The CFTC submitting its own crypto framework to the White House suggests regulatory action is proceeding on an executive track, reducing urgency for legislative action this year.
The Kalshi Senate vote ladder implies fewer than 50 yea votes on a crypto market structure bill, confirming the market does not see the votes available to pass the Clarity Act.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: The CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate, prompting the SEC and CFTC to move forward with independent crypto regulatory rulemaking as a substitute.exa_search → Crypto in America · as_of 2026-09-19T12:14:43+00:00
publisher: Crypto in America
published_at: 2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.cryptoinamerica.com/p/after-cryptos-bruising-week-on-capitol

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket resolves via uma_oracle; the regulatory substitute path via CFTC rulemaking does not appear to affect contract resolution, which requires the specific act to become law.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x9cb23d04b2ded06147482076688b69b487a8d982c63ebdda2ab3678cf27cf390

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-into-law-2026-polymarket-8-2026-09-19/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-into-law-2026-polymarket-8-2026-09-19.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("clarity-act-signed-into-law-2026-polymarket-8-2026-09-19")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091908",
  "published_at": "2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744",
  "target_event_slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) be signed into law by 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts 8% odds on the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026.",
    "The Senate failure to advance the bill is consistent with this near-floor pricing; the market had already discounted legislative success before the setback.",
    "The CFTC submitting its own crypto framework to the White House suggests regulatory action is proceeding on an executive track, reducing urgency for legislative action this year.",
    "The Kalshi Senate vote ladder implies fewer than 50 yea votes on a crypto market structure bill, confirming the market does not see the votes available to pass the Clarity Act."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Crypto in America",
          "source_url": "https://www.cryptoinamerica.com/p/after-cryptos-bruising-week-on-capitol",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T12:14:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate, prompting the SEC and CFTC to move forward with independent crypto regulatory rulemaking as a substitute.",
      "publisher": "Crypto in America",
      "published_at": "2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cryptoinamerica.com/p/after-cryptos-bruising-week-on-capitol"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket resolves via uma_oracle; the regulatory substitute path via CFTC rulemaking does not appear to affect contract resolution, which requires the specific act to become law."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Crypto in America: After Crypto’s Bruising Week on Capitol Hill, Regulators Pick Up the M",
      "url": "https://www.cryptoinamerica.com/p/after-cryptos-bruising-week-on-capitol",
      "published_at": "2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T12:14:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026091908 published 2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-ac1192e3349… ← underlying event all signals →