CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026 holds minority pricing

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071907",
  "published_at": "2026-07-19T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744",
  "target_event_slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Clarity Act be signed into law in 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 36% on the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026.",
    "Warren's conflict-of-interest scrutiny of Trump's reported $1.4 billion crypto income introduces a bipartisan complication the market appears to be discounting moderately.",
    "At 36%, the market sees passage as a minority outcome; Senate opposition driven by disclosure concerns could widen that gap.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-25SXVWH5D4 on broader crypto market structure legislation prices 40%, a tight spread suggesting cross-venue consensus on slim-but-real odds."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Kevin Helms",
          "source_url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/trumps-1-4b-crypto-income-draws-scrutiny-as-senate-weighs-clarity-act/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-20T10:47:34+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Senator Elizabeth Warren is pressing President Trump for crypto earnings disclosures as the Senate weighs the CLARITY Act, which could increase Trump's crypto income.",
      "publisher": "Kevin Helms",
      "published_at": "2026-07-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/trumps-1-4b-crypto-income-draws-scrutiny-as-senate-weighs-clarity-act/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract via UMA oracle; Warren's disclosure campaign adds a legislative friction the 36% probability reflects."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Kevin Helms: Trump’s $1.4B Crypto Income Draws Scrutiny as Senate Weighs CLARITY Ac",
      "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/trumps-1-4b-crypto-income-draws-scrutiny-as-senate-weighs-clarity-act/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-20T10:47:34+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}