Databricks IPO spread bridges a wide gap across major desks

Name: Databricks IPO spread bridges a wide gap across major desks
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-29T12:30:10+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 16% vs Kalshi 6%

record: CMSIG20260629DV03 | category: cross-venue-divergence | target: CM-EVT-858NYLKF97 | published: 2026-06-29

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices the Databricks IPO at 16%, Kalshi at 6%, a 10pp divergence on the same horizon.
Polymarket carries roughly 38x Kalshi's cumulative volume, anchoring the higher price with substantially more participation.
Kalshi's low print on comparatively thin volume may understate true market probability given Databricks' active pre-IPO signaling.
Resolution requires a confirmed public listing before Jan 1, 2027.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] cross_venue_spread

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $795 kalshi_vol_24h: $67

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.84 / 1.00
prompt_template: cross_venue_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxipo-26/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xfa0166f81f49ec29802bec6eabd71bd73aa24e65f0681b0071f5d1055ef44776
venue_b: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXIPO-26-DATABRICKS

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/databricks-ipo-k6-p16/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/databricks-ipo-k6-p16.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("databricks-ipo-k6-p16")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260629DV03",
  "published_at": "2026-06-29T12:30:10+00:00",
  "detection": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-858NYLKF97",
  "target_event_slug": "kxipo-26",
  "event_question": "Databricks IPO before 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the Databricks IPO at 16%, Kalshi at 6%, a 10pp divergence on the same horizon.",
    "Polymarket carries roughly 38x Kalshi's cumulative volume, anchoring the higher price with substantially more participation.",
    "Kalshi's low print on comparatively thin volume may understate true market probability given Databricks' active pre-IPO signaling.",
    "Resolution requires a confirmed public listing before Jan 1, 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-EBC7EEEA61); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 795.086187,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 66.87
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.84,
    "prompt_template": "cross_venue_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxipo-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXIPO-26-DATABRICKS",
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: Databricks IPO before 2027?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/databricks-ipo-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T12:30:10+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260629DV03 published 2026-06-29T12:30:10+00:00 signature sha256-d476f34ac15… ← underlying event all signals →