Discord IPO odds carry a premium on the smaller venue

Name: Discord IPO odds carry a premium on the smaller venue
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-22T07:49:09+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 11% vs Kalshi 22%

record: CMSIG20260922DV01 | category: cross-venue-divergence | target: CM-EVT-858NYLKF97 | published: 2026-09-22

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi sits at 22%, Polymarket at 11%, an 11pp spread on the same binary claim.
Kalshi is higher; Polymarket holds roughly 17x more cumulative volume, anchoring its print.
Polymarket's deeper liquidity and longer track record on IPO contracts give its lower price stronger credibility here.
Resolves YES only on a completed Discord IPO before Jan 1, 2027, a tight remaining window.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] cross_venue_spread

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $452 kalshi_vol_24h: $72

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.84 / 1.00
prompt_template: cross_venue_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxipo-26/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x48fcbf6bb8eceff817ba48b56211e4f8a4cf6896570d847d8d115e63c3abf36a
venue_b: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXIPO-26-DISCORD

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/discord-ipo-k22-p11/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/discord-ipo-k22-p11.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("discord-ipo-k22-p11")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260922DV01",
  "published_at": "2026-09-22T07:49:09+00:00",
  "detection": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-858NYLKF97",
  "target_event_slug": "kxipo-26",
  "event_question": "Discord IPO before 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi sits at 22%, Polymarket at 11%, an 11pp spread on the same binary claim.",
    "Kalshi is higher; Polymarket holds roughly 17x more cumulative volume, anchoring its print.",
    "Polymarket's deeper liquidity and longer track record on IPO contracts give its lower price stronger credibility here.",
    "Resolves YES only on a completed Discord IPO before Jan 1, 2027, a tight remaining window."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-26DA00133D); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 452.09,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 72.33
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.84,
    "prompt_template": "cross_venue_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxipo-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXIPO-26-DISCORD",
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: Discord IPO before 2027?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/discord-ipo-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-22T07:49:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260922DV01 published 2026-09-22T07:49:09+00:00 signature sha256-54de116fbbb… ← underlying event all signals →