Discord IPO timeline diverges on the major prediction desks

Name: Discord IPO timeline diverges on the major prediction desks
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-27T18:47:54+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 27% vs Kalshi 32%

record: CMSIG20260827DV01 | category: cross-venue-divergence | target: CM-EVT-858NYLKF97 | published: 2026-08-27

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices Discord IPO odds 5pp above Polymarket, 32% vs 27%, with roughly five months left in the window.
Polymarket is the lower-priced venue and holds the dominant share of volume, nearly twelve times Kalshi's cumulative figure.
High Polymarket volume behind the lower price makes that venue's read harder to dismiss as thin-market noise.
Resolution requires a confirmed public listing or first trade before January 1, 2027.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] cross_venue_spread

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $102 kalshi_vol_24h: $14

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.84 / 1.00
prompt_template: cross_venue_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxipo-26/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x48fcbf6bb8eceff817ba48b56211e4f8a4cf6896570d847d8d115e63c3abf36a
venue_b: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXIPO-26-DISCORD

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/discord-ipo-k32-p26/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/discord-ipo-k32-p26.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("discord-ipo-k32-p26")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260827DV01",
  "published_at": "2026-08-27T18:47:54+00:00",
  "detection": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-858NYLKF97",
  "target_event_slug": "kxipo-26",
  "event_question": "Discord IPO before 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Discord IPO odds 5pp above Polymarket, 32% vs 27%, with roughly five months left in the window.",
    "Polymarket is the lower-priced venue and holds the dominant share of volume, nearly twelve times Kalshi's cumulative figure.",
    "High Polymarket volume behind the lower price makes that venue's read harder to dismiss as thin-market noise.",
    "Resolution requires a confirmed public listing or first trade before January 1, 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-26DA00133D); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 101.62,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 14.32
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.84,
    "prompt_template": "cross_venue_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxipo-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXIPO-26-DISCORD",
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: Discord IPO before 2027?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/discord-ipo-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-27T18:47:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260827DV01 published 2026-08-27T18:47:54+00:00 signature sha256-aa589314c3b… ← underlying event all signals →