Fed cut above 25 basis points in 2026 wavers at long odds

Name: Fed cut above 25 basis points in 2026 wavers at long odds
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-06T17:18:51.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 12%

record: CMSIG2026070601 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6 | published: 2026-07-06

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices only a 12% chance the Fed delivers any single cut larger than 25 basis points in 2026.
Waller's hawkish pivot toward inflation as the primary risk is consistent with markets already pricing out aggressive easing.
New York Fed President John Williams separately said energy-driven disinflation eases near-term inflation pressure, a mild offset to Waller's posture that the market appears to absorb without moving its distribution.
The Kalshi rate-path ladder pins the year-end upper bound firmly in the 3.50-3.75 percent range, with only 11 percent probability above 4.00 percent, confirming the market sees cuts as likely but modest in pace.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Fed Governor Christopher Waller declared inflation is now the primary risk, shifting from prior labor-market concerns and signaling no urgency for aggressive easing.exa_search → tradevae.com · as_of 2026-07-08T10:13:38+00:00
publisher: tradevae.com
published_at: 2026-07-06T17:18:51.000Z
source_url: http://www.tradevae.com/news/economy/waller-says-inflation-now-the-primary-risk-as-us-labor-market-stabilizes/

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi contract resolves via Federal Reserve announcement; at 12%, the market is aligned with Fed officials' cautious, data-dependent posture.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxlargecut-26/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-25bp-in-2026-kalshi-12-2026-07-06/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-25bp-in-2026-kalshi-12-2026-07-06.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-cut-25bp-in-2026-kalshi-12-2026-07-06")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070601",
  "published_at": "2026-07-06T17:18:51.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only a 12% chance the Fed delivers any single cut larger than 25 basis points in 2026.",
    "Waller's hawkish pivot toward inflation as the primary risk is consistent with markets already pricing out aggressive easing.",
    "New York Fed President John Williams separately said energy-driven disinflation eases near-term inflation pressure, a mild offset to Waller's posture that the market appears to absorb without moving its distribution.",
    "The Kalshi rate-path ladder pins the year-end upper bound firmly in the 3.50-3.75 percent range, with only 11 percent probability above 4.00 percent, confirming the market sees cuts as likely but modest in pace."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "tradevae.com",
          "source_url": "http://www.tradevae.com/news/economy/waller-says-inflation-now-the-primary-risk-as-us-labor-market-stabilizes/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-08T10:13:38+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Governor Christopher Waller declared inflation is now the primary risk, shifting from prior labor-market concerns and signaling no urgency for aggressive easing.",
      "publisher": "tradevae.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-06T17:18:51.000Z",
      "source_url": "http://www.tradevae.com/news/economy/waller-says-inflation-now-the-primary-risk-as-us-labor-market-stabilizes/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via Federal Reserve announcement; at 12%, the market is aligned with Fed officials' cautious, data-dependent posture."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxlargecut-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "tradevae.com: Waller Says Inflation Now the Primary Risk as U.S. Labor Market Stabil",
      "url": "http://www.tradevae.com/news/economy/waller-says-inflation-now-the-primary-risk-as-us-labor-market-stabilizes/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-06T17:18:51.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-08T10:13:38+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026070601 published 2026-07-06T17:18:51.000Z signature sha256-18d8d9d8233… ← underlying event all signals →