Market puts long odds against an outsized Fed cut
Kalshi 3%
record: CMSIG2026110602 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6 | published: 2026-11-06
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Kalshi prices only a 3% chance the Federal Reserve cuts rates by more than 25 basis points in 2026.
- New York Fed President John Williams's hawkish remarks on elevated inflation are fully consistent with the near-zero probability of an outsized cut.
- October nonfarm payrolls came in at 165,000, well above the 59,000 forecast, reinforcing the case against aggressive easing.
- Resolution via an official Federal Reserve rate decision announcement for any remaining 2026 meeting.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
- story
- New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said inflation remains too high and reiterated the 2% target amid multiple price shocks.exa_search → Max Rego · as_of 2026-11-09T07:47:40+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- Max Rego
- published_at
- 2026-11-06T15:18:36.000Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Kalshi contract resolves on a Federal Reserve decision; at 3%, the market is firmly aligned with Williams's hawkish posture.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
- cm_event
- /events/kxlargecut-26/
external
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-above-25-bps-this-year-kalshi-3-2026-11-06/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-above-25-bps-this-year-kalshi-3-2026-11-06.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("fed-cut-above-25-bps-this-year-kalshi-3-2026-11-06") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026110602",
"published_at": "2026-11-06T15:18:36.000Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
"target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
"event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
"bullets": [
"Kalshi prices only a 3% chance the Federal Reserve cuts rates by more than 25 basis points in 2026.",
"New York Fed President John Williams's hawkish remarks on elevated inflation are fully consistent with the near-zero probability of an outsized cut.",
"October nonfarm payrolls came in at 165,000, well above the 59,000 forecast, reinforcing the case against aggressive easing.",
"Resolution via an official Federal Reserve rate decision announcement for any remaining 2026 meeting."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "Max Rego",
"source_url": "https://thehill.com/business/6203854-fed-williams-inflation-too-high/",
"retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T07:47:40+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
},
"story": "New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said inflation remains too high and reiterated the 2% target amid multiple price shocks.",
"publisher": "Max Rego",
"published_at": "2026-11-06T15:18:36.000Z",
"source_url": "https://thehill.com/business/6203854-fed-williams-inflation-too-high/"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Kalshi contract resolves on a Federal Reserve decision; at 3%, the market is firmly aligned with Williams's hawkish posture."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/kxlargecut-26/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26",
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "Max Rego: Fed’s Williams says inflation too high, targets 2 percent",
"url": "https://thehill.com/business/6203854-fed-williams-inflation-too-high/",
"published_at": "2026-11-06T15:18:36.000Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T07:47:40+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "kalshi_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1