Odds of jumbo Fed cut this year remain a long shot

Name: Odds of jumbo Fed cut this year remain a long shot
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 7%

record: CMSIG2026072205 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6 | published: 2026-07-22

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi puts only 7% probability on the Federal Reserve cutting rates by more than 25 basis points at any point in 2026.
The oil shock narrative, Brent near 92 dollars, WTI past 84, supports the Fed hold consensus and is consistent with this near-zero jumbo-cut probability.
The Kalshi rate ladder implies the upper bound most likely settling in the 3.25-3.50% range, meaning any cut would be modest, not aggressive.
Resolves via the Federal Reserve's official rate decisions; a single cut of 50 basis points or more at any 2026 meeting would resolve yes.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Oil prices surged more than 20% after US-Iran hostilities resumed, lifting inflation risk and prompting Reuters poll consensus for the Fed to hold rates through year-end.exa_search → walletinvestor.com · as_of 2026-07-23T10:16:46+00:00
publisher: walletinvestor.com
published_at: 2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://walletinvestor.com/news/finance-news/fed-expected-to-hold-rates-through-2026-as-oil-shock-lifts-inflation-risk/

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi at 7% on a jumbo cut is fully aligned with the oil-shock-driven hold consensus described in the Reuters poll cited by the news.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxlargecut-26/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-above-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-7-2026-07-22/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-above-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-7-2026-07-22.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-cut-above-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-7-2026-07-22")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072205",
  "published_at": "2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts only 7% probability on the Federal Reserve cutting rates by more than 25 basis points at any point in 2026.",
    "The oil shock narrative, Brent near 92 dollars, WTI past 84, supports the Fed hold consensus and is consistent with this near-zero jumbo-cut probability.",
    "The Kalshi rate ladder implies the upper bound most likely settling in the 3.25-3.50% range, meaning any cut would be modest, not aggressive.",
    "Resolves via the Federal Reserve's official rate decisions; a single cut of 50 basis points or more at any 2026 meeting would resolve yes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "walletinvestor.com",
          "source_url": "https://walletinvestor.com/news/finance-news/fed-expected-to-hold-rates-through-2026-as-oil-shock-lifts-inflation-risk/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-23T10:16:46+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Oil prices surged more than 20% after US-Iran hostilities resumed, lifting inflation risk and prompting Reuters poll consensus for the Fed to hold rates through year-end.",
      "publisher": "walletinvestor.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://walletinvestor.com/news/finance-news/fed-expected-to-hold-rates-through-2026-as-oil-shock-lifts-inflation-risk/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 7% on a jumbo cut is fully aligned with the oil-shock-driven hold consensus described in the Reuters poll cited by the news."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxlargecut-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "walletinvestor.com: Fed Expected to Hold Rates Through 2026 as Oil Shock Lifts Inflation R",
      "url": "https://walletinvestor.com/news/finance-news/fed-expected-to-hold-rates-through-2026-as-oil-shock-lifts-inflation-risk/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-23T10:16:46+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026072205 published 2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-019c2b1acc9… ← underlying event all signals →