Odds on a large Fed cut this year stay near zero

Name: Odds on a large Fed cut this year stay near zero
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-14T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 4%

record: CMSIG2026091403 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6 | published: 2026-09-14

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices a Fed cut greater than 25 basis points in 2026 at just 4%, resolving via Federal Reserve official decision.
With Warsh widely expected to hike Wednesday, the Kalshi contract is consistent with the news, a large cut this year is a near-complete long shot.
Polymarket's 2026 rate hike contract (CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4) at 93% and this 4% cut contract point in the same direction: the market has fully priced the hike and ruled out a pivot.
Resolution requires Federal Reserve to announce a single cut exceeding 25 bps at any 2026 meeting, a bar that looks very high given Wednesday's expected move.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is poised to raise rates by 25 basis points even as President Trump continues to demand a cut, according to The Business Times.exa_search → Rob Curran · as_of 2026-09-15T13:05:57+00:00
publisher: Rob Curran
published_at: 2026-09-14T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/feds-warsh-poised-pull-trigger-and-raise-rates-first-time-under-his-watch

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi's cut contract at 4% is the inverse confirmation of the hike consensus, with Federal Reserve announcement as the named resolution source.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxlargecut-26/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-greater-than-25-bps-in-2026-kalshi-4-2026-09-14/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-greater-than-25-bps-in-2026-kalshi-4-2026-09-14.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-cut-greater-than-25-bps-in-2026-kalshi-4-2026-09-14")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091403",
  "published_at": "2026-09-14T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a Fed cut greater than 25 basis points in 2026 at just 4%, resolving via Federal Reserve official decision.",
    "With Warsh widely expected to hike Wednesday, the Kalshi contract is consistent with the news, a large cut this year is a near-complete long shot.",
    "Polymarket's 2026 rate hike contract (CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4) at 93% and this 4% cut contract point in the same direction: the market has fully priced the hike and ruled out a pivot.",
    "Resolution requires Federal Reserve to announce a single cut exceeding 25 bps at any 2026 meeting, a bar that looks very high given Wednesday's expected move."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Rob Curran",
          "source_url": "https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/feds-warsh-poised-pull-trigger-and-raise-rates-first-time-under-his-watch",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-15T13:05:57+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is poised to raise rates by 25 basis points even as President Trump continues to demand a cut, according to The Business Times.",
      "publisher": "Rob Curran",
      "published_at": "2026-09-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/feds-warsh-poised-pull-trigger-and-raise-rates-first-time-under-his-watch"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's cut contract at 4% is the inverse confirmation of the hike consensus, with Federal Reserve announcement as the named resolution source."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxlargecut-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Rob Curran: Fed's Warsh poised to pull trigger and raise rates for the first time",
      "url": "https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/feds-warsh-poised-pull-trigger-and-raise-rates-first-time-under-his-watch",
      "published_at": "2026-09-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-15T13:05:57+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026091403 published 2026-09-14T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-6d5852108cc… ← underlying event all signals →